The Latest Breaking News from Bill Adams

Investors, traders and speculators welcome much-better-than-hoped-for core CPI data on top of optimism-renewing AI earnings.

The November jobs report showed unemployment rose to a four-year-high.

With the U.S. government shutdown still clouding official labor statistics, alternative data from private firms and banks is sending a clear message: the labor market is cooling, and markets are betting big that the Federal Reserve will respond with another rate cut at its Oct. 30 meeting.

Interpreting economic data is challenging on a good day—harder still when crucial reports go missing.

As the U.S. government shutdown suspends Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data releases, including the critical September jobs report scheduled for Friday, the Chicago Fed has stepped in with a final real-time forecast, predicting a steady unemployment rate of 4.34% for September 2025, based on 11 job market indicators.

A surprisingly weak private-sector ADP Employment report, released during an ongoing government shutdown, has intensified fears of a looming economic downturn.

“The consensus has been wrong since January,” Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Sløk wrote on Wednesday.

The Federal Reserve's latest economic projections reveal a surprisingly shallow path for interest rate cuts in 2026, signaling that the policy will remain restrictive as the central bank contends with a resilient economy and sticky inflation.

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates on Wednesday at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting for September.