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Benzinga
Benzinga
Business
Rishabh Mishra

BLS Data Halts, But Chicago Fed Sees Steady 4.34% Unemployment: Private Sources Flag 'Low Fire, Low Hire' Holiday Risk

BLS Chicago Fed US Federal Reserve Unemployment Bill Adams Bureau of Labor Statistics Austan Goolsbee United States Challenger Gray Christmas Government Shutdown
Unemployment Climbs To Four-Year High

As the U.S. government shutdown suspends Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data releases, including the critical September jobs report scheduled for Friday, the Chicago Fed has stepped in with a final real-time forecast, predicting a steady unemployment rate of 4.34% for September 2025, based on 11 job market indicators.

However, private data sources paint a concerning picture, signaling a “low fire, low hire, low gear” labor market with weak holiday hiring plans that could impact payrolls through year-end.

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