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The Latest Breaking News from Diane Swonk

Top economist Mark Zandi says the indicator that has called every recession since WWII just signaled we're already in one

The Vicious Cycle Index is a recession indicator that takes labor force participation changes into consideration. The top economist at Moody’s Analytics said it’s flashing red.

Fortune

The jobs report looks good ‘for the wrong reasons,’ top economist warns: It’s hiding how many Americans are giving up

The strong March number takes rate cuts off the table, and lets the Fed focus squarely on inflation.

Fortune

How a war in the Middle East is hiking your mortgage rate in America

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.43% last week, its highest level since last October.

Fortune

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Top economist says Iran war could trigger an economic ‘butterfly effect’—and keep inflation elevated for years

"Much like we saw in the wake of the pandemic," KPMG's Diane Swonk said, "those changes could trigger a longer-lasting bout of inflation."

Fortune

The record gap between corporate profits and worker pay has an ‘undercurrent of betrayal,’ top economist warns

“Something in our economic narrative is broken.”

Fortune

Trump’s tax refund promises from the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ are temporary, the ‘sugar high will be short lived’

Trump didn’t account for inflation.

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Top economist says latest jobs data shows a 'gut-wrenching’ labor market for the middle class

“We’re growing, but we can’t generate jobs,” KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk told Fortune. “Never seen anything like it.”

Fortune

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The weakest labor market since 2011 has BofA asking, ‘Dude, where’s my job?’

“A lack of recovery in the jobs market and a slower U.S. economy are key risks to watch for in 2026.”

Fortune

Obama’s former top economic advisor says he feels 'a tiny bit bad' for Trump because gas prices are low, but consumer confidence is still plummeting

“Consumers are just in this, whatever the highest price is, is the price they're going to focus on,” Harvard professor Jason Furman said.

Fortune

GDP data confirms the Gen Z nightmare: the era of jobless growth is here

"I've never seen anything like it," KPMG's chief economist Diane Swonk told Fortune.

Fortune

'We might need more than a few grains of salt': Top economists pan inflation report that effectively assumed housing inflation was zero

The culprit, several economists say, is the extended government shutdown.

Fortune

Top economist Diane Swonk: Jerome Powell risks losing the Fed’s credibility on a gamble over AI and immigration

It all comes down to the reason behind the weakness in unemployment and Powell’s diagnosis of the “low-hire, low-fire” economy of 2025.

Fortune

'No hire' job market leaves unemployed in limbo as threats to economy multiply

The unemployment rate is low and the economy is still growing, but those out of work face the slowest pace of hiring in more than a decade

The Independent UK

These 2 states will determine if the U.S. slips into a recession while one more enters the danger zone, top economist says

“This state-level picture mirrors the national trend: The U.S. economy is not in recession, but it is struggling to avoid one.”

Fortune

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Fortune

Top economist on the economy’s dirty truth: The only people who feel good are ‘making over $200,000’ and ‘have large stock portfolios’

Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, sees a “creep instead of a surge” in inflation. Things are uneasy below the surface.

International Business Times

US Fed Set To Hold Firm Against Trump Pressure

The US central bank is expected to defy political pressure and keep interest rates unchanged Wednesday at the end of a two-day policy meeting, as the effects of President Donald Trump's tariffs emerge.

International Business Times

US Fed Set To Hold Rates Steady In The Face Of Trump Pressure

The US central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged for a fourth straight policy meeting this week, despite President Donald Trump's push for rate cuts, as officials contend with uncertainty sparked by the Republican's tariffs.

International Business Times

What Comes Next In Trump's Legal Battle Over Tariffs?

A US federal appeals court has temporarily halted a ruling that found many of President Donald Trump's tariffs illegal, but the chance it could ultimately back the original decision looms over the White House.

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International Business Times

'Panic And Paralysis': US Firms Fret Despite China Tariff Reprieve

President Donald Trump's rollercoaster tariff row with Beijing has wreaked havoc on US companies that rely on Chinese manufacturing, with a temporary de-escalation only expected to partially calm the storm, analysts and business owners say.

International Business Times

Trump Goes To War With The Fed

Donald Trump's simmering discontent with the US Federal Reserve boiled over this week, with the president threatening to take the unprecedented step of ousting the head of the fiercely independent central bank.

The Independent UK

U.S. economy likely generated a solid 160,000 jobs last month, but Trump's trade wars cloud outlook

The U.S. labor market likely kept on churning out jobs last month, economists say, but the outlook is cloudy and getting cloudier as the Trump administration wages trade wars, purges federal employees and seeks to deport millions of immigrants

International Business Times

US Economic Growth Steady In 2024 As Trump Takes Office

The US economy expanded at a solid clip in 2024, helped by consumer and government spending, official data showed Thursday, signaling its resilience as President Donald Trump takes over the reins.

International Business Times

US Fed Prepares To Pause In First Rate Decision Since Trump's Inauguration

The US Federal Reserve is expected to announce a pause in rate cuts on Wednesday, as policymakers look to continue tackling inflation under close and vocal scrutiny from President Donald Trump.

Fortune

Lower mortgage rates aren’t igniting the housing market and there are two key reasons why, claims a top economist

They’re either holding out for rates to fall further or can’t get past how unaffordable it’s become to buy a home all around, KPMG’s chief economist said.

The Independent UK

Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates fast enough to deliver a 'soft landing'?

American consumers and home buyers, business people and political leaders have been waiting for months for what the Federal Reserve is poised to announce this week: That it’s cutting its key interest rate from a two-decade peak

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