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The Latest Breaking News from Moody Analytics

Top economist Mark Zandi says the indicator that has called every recession since WWII just signaled we're already in one

The Vicious Cycle Index is a recession indicator that takes labor force participation changes into consideration. The top economist at Moody’s Analytics said it’s flashing red.

A Wall Street vet’s Walmart recession indicator just hit its highest point since 2008—and he says the fear ‘just keeps multiplying’

A Wall Street vet’s Walmart recession indicator just hit its highest point since 2008—and he says the fear ‘just keeps multiplying’

Jim Paulsen’s “Walmart Recession Signal” has tracked closely with downturns in real GDP growth and unemployment spikes.

Sneaking unemployment rate means the U.S. economy is inching closer to a key recession indicator, says Moody’s

Sneaking unemployment rate means the U.S. economy is inching closer to a key recession indicator, says Moody’s

“The trends are not our friends here,” said Moody’s economist Cris deRitis.

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Borrowing by AI companies represents a ‘mounting potential threat to the financial system,’ top economist says

“Borrowing by AI companies should be on the radar screen as a mounting potential threat to the financial system and broader economy."

Is Moody’s Corporation Stock Underperforming the Dow?

Moody’s Corp has underperformed the Dow Jones index over the past year. However, Wall Street analysts remain moderately optimistic about its prospects.

Top Economist Warns Of 'Serious Affordability Crisis' Amid Trump Tariffs And Immigration Restrictions — 'Juicing' Inflation

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics, has issued a sharp warning regarding the trajectory of the U.S. economy, declaring that it is currently mired in a “serious affordability crisis.”

The most troubling feature of the job market is how thinly spread gains are, top economist says — 'this only happens when the economy is in recession'

"Since the beginning of the year, the economy has created a paltry 600k jobs, but without the job growth in these industries, there would be zero job growth."

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A third of the U.S. economy is already in a recession or at high risk, and another third is stagnating, Zandi warns

A third of the U.S. economy is already in a recession or at high risk, and another third is stagnating, Zandi warns

“Southern states are generally the strongest, but their growth is slowing.”

Winter is coming: U.S. will be most vulnerable to a recession late this year and early next as tariff and immigration fallout peak, top economist says

Winter is coming: U.S. will be most vulnerable to a recession late this year and early next as tariff and immigration fallout peak, top economist says

With the economy facing many threats, it wouldn’t take much to push it into recession, Mark Zandi warns.

When the next recession hits, whoever is president will face intense pressure to cut tariffs, so don’t rely on them for revenue, top economist says

When the next recession hits, whoever is president will face intense pressure to cut tariffs, so don’t rely on them for revenue, top economist says

“There’s going to be a strong incentive on that president’s part to say, ‘Okay, I’m going to cut the taxes.’”

More than half of industries are already shedding workers, a 'telling' sign that's accompanied past recessions, top economist says

More than half of industries are already shedding workers, a 'telling' sign that's accompanied past recessions, top economist says

“Things could still turn around if the economic policies weighing on the economy soon lift. But that looks increasingly unlikely.”

Top economist warns the U.S. is 'on the precipice of recession' — and it will be hard for the Fed to come to the rescue

Top economist warns the U.S. is 'on the precipice of recession' — and it will be hard for the Fed to come to the rescue

“Consumer spending has flatlined, construction and manufacturing are contracting, and employment is set to fall.”

Top economist sounds the alarm even louder on the housing market and says homebuilders are 'giving up'

Top economist sounds the alarm even louder on the housing market and says homebuilders are 'giving up'

"A big tell is that many builders are delaying their land purchases from the land banks. New home sales, starts, and completions will soon fall."

Which countries will lose the most if tensions reignite around Iran?

Which countries will lose the most if tensions reignite around Iran?

Russia could benefit from an escalating situation in the Middle East, while China and Europe would see their economies suffer if the ceasefire between Iran and Israel fails to hold.

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International Business Times

US Growth Figure Expected To Make For Tough Reading For Trump

US GDP figures for the first quarter are expected to show a sharp drop-off in growth -- and possibly even a recession -- reflecting a surge in imports before President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs came into effect.

International Business Times

China's Forecast-beating Growth Belies Storm Clouds Ahead: Analysts

Forecast-beating growth in China's first quarter may have offered Beijing's economic planners some much needed good news -- but analysts warn they should strap in for tariff-induced woes further down the line.

International Business Times

China's Economy Likely Grew 5.1% In Q1 On Export Surge: AFP Poll

China is expected to post first-quarter growth of around five percent on Wednesday, buoyed by exporters rushing to stave off higher US tariffs but still weighed by sluggish domestic consumption, analysts say.

America’s consumer economy is hostage to its top earners—and that could mean trouble down the road

A Moody’s Analytics report revealed America’s wealthiest individuals are buoying discretionary spending.

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International Business Times

US Fed Expected To Hold Rate Steady Despite Trump Pressure To Cut

After three interest rate cuts in a row, the US Federal Reserve is expected to take a breather on Wednesday and signal it will remain on pause until the data changes, despite pressure to cut from President Donald Trump.

International Business Times

China To Hash Out Stimulus Plan With US Elections In Its Sights

China's top lawmakers gather Monday to hash out a major stimulus package that analysts say could grow even bigger if former US president Donald Trump wins the White House this week.

Donald Trump's Plans to Fight Inflation Would Actually Make it Worse, Economists Say

While experts also disagree with some of Vice President Kamala Harris's proposals, they say her plans are not "inflationary" when compared to her opponent's.

International Business Times

China Set To Post Slowest Quarterly Growth This Year: Analysts

China's economy likely expanded at its slowest pace this year, according to an AFP survey ahead of data Friday, as authorities struggle to reignite consumption amid a chronic debt crisis in the property sector.

The Independent UK

Trump's economic plans would worsen inflation, experts say

Donald Trump has vowed that if voters return him to the White House, “inflation will vanish completely.”

The Trump economy: Slower growth, higher prices and a bigger national debt

Plans to hike tariffs, tighten immigration and cut taxes are likely to crimp growth and fuel inflation, experts say.

India's GDP to grow 6.1% in 2024: Moody's Analytics

Moody's Analytics projects India's economy to grow 6.1% in 2024, lower than 7.7% in 2023, due to COVID impact.

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