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Fortune

Jason Ma

Winter is coming: U.S. will be most vulnerable to a recession late this year and early next as tariff and immigration fallout peak, top economist says

Mark Zandi Donald Trump Recession Immigration Economy US Federal Reserve United States Inflation Moody Analytics

(Credit: Getty Images)

The odds that the economy will slip into a recession are nearly 50-50, and the time of greatest vulnerability will run from late 2025 to early 2026, according to Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi. That’s when the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs and his immigration crackdown will reach their peak, he predicted.

The economy could suffer a brutal winter as President Donald Trump’s tariffs and immigration crackdown keep the U.S. teetering on the edge of recession.

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