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The Latest Breaking News from Aditya Bhave

Kevin Warsh's first Fed test is here: He must navigate hawks 'on the offensive' and Wall Street's hunger for details on regime change

Warsh has been in post for a number of weeks now, but for the first time this week, elements of his must-anticipated policy stance will be made public.

Fortune

Wall Street won’t like it—but Kevin Warsh at the Fed may mark the end of your chatty neighborhood chairman

Until yesterday, many might have hoped that Warsh’s criticism of forward guidance was an ideal rather than an actionable opinion. They were wrong.

Fortune

Recession and stagflation risks are rising due to Iran conflict, as economist warns it’s ‘getting harder to argue disruption will be temporary’

"Clearly, the longer that oil remains at these levels, expectations of a sustained shock will only grow," Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid said.

Fortune

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Trump is giving the U.S. economy a $65 billion tax-refund shot in the arm, mostly for higher-income people, BofA says

“The consumer divide is about to get deeper,” BofA senior U.S. economist Aditya Bhave wrote on Wednesday.

Fortune

How America's High-Income Splurge Is Quietly Propping Up Service-Sector ETFs

America’s increasingly K-shaped economy is showing up loud and clear in ETF performance-and the winners are the funds tied to service spending, travel, experiences, and digital consumption. While lower-income households pull back, affluent consumers are keeping service-sector ETFs surprisingly resilient, offering investors a rare pocket of strength in an otherwise…

Benzinga

Trump’s pick for Fed chair isn’t enough to threaten central bank independence, says top economist—especially if Jerome Powell decides to stick around

“The question then becomes, will Powell leave as a governor?”

Fortune

Powell Taps The Brakes In The Fog, But Traders Keep Hitting The Gas

Fed Chair Jerome Powell firmly pushed back against market expectations for a December rate cut on Wednesday, cautioning that it's more prudent to slow down when visibility is low—yet his remarks only modestly dented investor optimism, with traders still essentially betting on another move by the end of the year.

Benzinga

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A Fed Rate Cut Is Done Deal–But Powell's Words Could Spark The Meltup

The markets have already celebrated the Fed's next move — now they want a new reason to keep the party going.

Benzinga

Powell Seals Another Rate Cut—Is This The Spark The Housing Market Needs?

Fed Chair Jerome Powell sent a clear message Wednesday, reiterating that the Federal Reserve is still leaning toward lower rates—and for the sluggish U.S. housing market, that could be the break it's been waiting for.

Benzinga

'Is AI hurting growth?' Top analysts say their clients are starting to worry as the 3-year bull market shows its age

“It seems you can’t go anywhere without talking about AI,” says Aditya Bhave, senior U.S. economist at Bank of America Research.

Fortune

Government Shutdown Looms: What It Means For The Economy

With a matter of days remaining in the fiscal year and no full-year funding or stopgap deal in place, the U.S. government could shut down at 12:01 a.m. ET on Oct. 1, stalling vital services, furloughing hundreds of thousands of federal workers and weighing on the economy if lawmakers fail…

Benzinga

Will Powell hint at a rate cut? All eyes on Jackson Hole speech

Markets await Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech for clues on rates. With inflation high and jobs weakening, the Fed faces pressure. Powell may leave a September rate cut on the table, but the trajectory isn't guaranteed.

Euronews

Bank of America sees stagflation, not recession—and no rate cut this year. It’s because of 2 specific Trump policies

It all comes down to the labor market, immigration, and tariffs. What is really going on in terms of how many workers are available?

Fortune

Recession Talk Heats Up After Jobs Data—But Corporate America Says Otherwise

A shockingly soft labor report reignited Wall Street's recession fears, but Corporate America might be telling an entirely different story—one that shows signs of strength not seen in years.

Benzinga

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Benzinga

Trump And Wall Street Want Rate Cuts—The Data Says: Keep Waiting

A stronger-than-expected labor report just crushed any hopes that the Federal Reserve would lower rates this month—despite speculation from Wall Street and direct demands from President Donald Trump.

Benzinga

S&P 500 At 6,666 In 2025? Bank Of America Predicts 'Another Good Year For Equities'

Bank of America analysts are optimistic about stocks in 2025, expecting a 10% increase in S&P 500 index to 6,666, driven by earnings growth and sector rotation.

Fortune

BofA details clients’ 5 major economic fears—then knocks them all down

“For now, we think the broader macro data flow does not point to recession," Bank of America's economics team wrote Monday.

The Independent UK

US consumers keep spending despite high prices and their own gloomy outlook. Can it last?

A flow of recent data from the U.S. government has made one thing strikingly clear: A surge in consumer spending is fueling strong growth, demonstrating a resilience that has confounded economists, Federal Reserve officials and even the sour sentiments that Americans themselves have expressed in opinion polls

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Fortune

Bank of America analyst warns the Fed will hike rates to 'point of pain' to get inflation down

An unexpected spike in inflation in January prompted questions to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen over whether a recession is inevitable.

Benzinga

Despite Recession Fears, This Indicator Says The US Economy Is Booming

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY) has taken a big hit so far in 2022. Negative U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter has investors increasingly spooked that inflation and aggressive Federal Reserve tightening could push the economy into a recession.

Benzinga

Is The Dollar Still The Gold Standard Of Currencies?

After trillions of dollars of U.S. government stimulus spending since the beginning of 2020 and with inflation running at its highest levels in more than 40 years, some investors are understandably growing concerned that "dollar debasement" is threatening the U.S. dollar's long-standing position as the world's preferred reserve currency.

Benzinga

Why Energy And Food Price Shock Could Last 'At Least A Year'

Central banks have recently focused on so-called core inflation metrics, which do not include volatile food and energy prices. Past food and energy price shocks have been relatively short-lived, but Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave recently said there's evidence the recent spike in food and energy prices may not…

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