The U.S. economy is bracing for a substantial fiscal injection this tax season, with Bank of America Global Research analysts projecting a massive surge in tax refunds driven by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). While the legislation is poised to give the economy a $65 billion shot in the arm compared with last year, analysts suggest the benefits will be unevenly distributed, potentially exacerbating the nation’s “K-shaped” economic divide.
According to BofA Global Research, tax refunds in 2026 are expected to be approximately $65 billion higher than in 2025—an 18% year-over-year increase. The bank estimates the total consumer stimulus from the OBBBA will range from $135 billion to $140 billion. However, the structure of these tax breaks, particularly changes to the state and local tax (SALT) deduction caps, suggests that middle- and higher-income households will reap most of the benefits.
