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The Latest Breaking News from Shane Oliver

Break in economic data keeps Middle East in focus

Traders will be hoping US President Donald Trump strikes a permanent deal with Iran to keep the Strait of Hormuz open as the clock ticks on a fragile ceasefire.

AAP

Wall Street seems to have decided the recession risk is over. Can the Australian market do the same?

Experts say US market ‘may have run ahead of itself’ while ASX 200’s more modest recovery is due in part to Australia’s reliance on fuel imports

The Guardian - AU

Australia last rationed fuel in the 1970s. Could we do it again?

As oil prices skyrocket, analysts believe the disruption to the global supply will last months, not weeks. So what other options are there?

The Guardian - AU

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‘If we have to change tack, we will’: RBA hikes rates but not aiming to put Australia into recession, Bullock says

Reserve Bank of Australia’s second consecutive increase lifts cash rate target to 4.1%, back to where it was in February last year

The Guardian - AU

Oil shock further reason for tax reform, spending cuts

An economic downturn might be needed to bring inflation back to target, economists warn, but the government can help with spending cuts and productivity reform.

AAP

Interest rate hike 'no slam dunk' amid Iran uncertainty

Traders and economists widely expect the Reserve Bank to lift interest rates but uncertainty over the Iran war could convince the board to keep them on hold.

AAP

Investors are expecting Donald Trump to back down in the war with Iran – but what if he doesn’t?

Global markets have become inured to the US president’s posturing over the past year, but economists warn they may be ‘a little bit complacent’ in anticipating a short conflict in the Middle East

The Guardian - AU

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Banks, miners the winners of a resilient earning season

After three years of declining profits, Australian corporations as a whole returned to growth this reporting season, led by banks including CBA and NAB.

AAP

No pain at the pump: petrol companies warned on gouging

Petrol stations will be closely watched for signs of price gouging after military tensions exploded in the Middle East.

AAP

Did you buy a coffee machine with a tax refund? It may have affected Australia’s interest rate

Policymakers didn’t think people had the financial capacity to purchase ‘durable’ goods – but a rise in spending contributed to inflation

The Guardian - AU

Greens hold door open to capital gains tax reforms

Support from the Greens could hold the key to opening the door to capital gains tax changes as the government ponders reforms the opposition says it won't back.

AAP

Why some economists go against the flow on RBA rate bet

The Reserve Bank is widely tipped to become the first major central bank on Tuesday to U-turn from rate cuts to rate hikes in the post-COVID inflation era.

AAP

Row over government role fuelling inflation, rate rise

Spending blow-outs by the government will force the Reserve Bank to hike rates, critics say, but the treasurer argues the private sector is driving inflation.

AAP

The Australian dollar is (oddly) rising – what does ‘sell America’ sentiment have to do with it?

So much for the ‘Trump trade’ – investors are moving money out of US assets amid tariff disputes, attacks on the Federal Reserve and concerns over government debt levels

The Guardian - AU

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AAP

Healthy jobs market spells rate pain for borrowers

Upcoming inflation data will be make or break for a Reserve Bank rate hike decision following stronger than expected jobs figures, economists say.

The Guardian - AU

A stooge in the US Fed could blow out inflation in Australia – but Trump is unlikely to get his way

Global consequences likely to be severe if the president is able to take control of US central bank

AAP

Dishing the public dosh to force RBA's hand on rates

With the government unlikely to restrain public spending, the Reserve Bank will have to lift rates in 2026 to keep inflation under control, economists say.

The Guardian - AU

In Australia’s cost-of-living-crisis, even lawyers are forced to rely on food banks

One in five households earning $91,000 or more experienced food insecurity in the past 12 months, a report has found

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The Guardian - AU

Financial markets now certain the RBA will hike interest rates in 2026

The changed outlook is a result of unwelcome inflation data, but could slow down the hot property market

AAP

Splurging shoppers push economy over speed limit

The sharpest rise in household spending in 21 months suggests the economy is continuing to grow in strength, heightening Reserve Bank fears about inflation.

International Business Times UK

Panic on 47th Street: Gold Buyers in Tears After Record Prices Suddenly Plunge

Panic hits investors as the record gold price suddenly plunges. Discover why the gold rush ended in tears and what market experts are forecasting for the future.

The Guardian - AU

Why thousands are queuing for hours in central Sydney to buy gold

Investors are trading out of shares and currencies and into gold – but experts are wary of a correction

The Guardian - AU

The ‘messy’ trend behind Australia’s rising unemployment is worrying economists

The RBA is holding fire on further rate cuts until it is confident that inflation is easing. But the latest jobs data complicates matters

AAP

Inflation fading but rate cut doubtful at least for now

RBA boss Michele Bullock will face questions from federal MPs on the timing of interest rate decisions ahead of key economic data releases.

AAP

Trade and skills under spotlight in 'promising' talks

The treasurer has sung the praises of the government's long-awaited roundtable after hours of discussions on productivity, trade and technology.

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