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The Latest Breaking News from Sanam Vakil

War, a Trump-imposed deal or internal regime collapse: for Tehran, none of the options are good

Iran’s leaders now face unprecedented peril. The regime has lost its footing, and the global mechanisms to avoid conflict no longer work, says Sanam Vakil of Chatham House

The Guardian - UK

With thousands dead, the Iranian regime may survive these protests – but not in its current form

With fear, surveillance and brute force only set to increase, there are disturbing parallels with Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, says Sanam Vakil of Chatham House

The Guardian - UK

This isn’t a real ceasefire in Gaza – it’s a holding pattern before war returns

Israel’s airstrikes have exposed the fragility of Trump’s ‘peace plan’. Without international support, it risks crumbling altogether, says Sanam Vakil of Chatham House

The Guardian - UK

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Israel has replaced Iran as the biggest security threat to the Gulf states

As the US waits on the sidelines, Israel’s actions – as evidenced by the attack on Doha – are becoming increasingly audacious, says Sanam Vakil, director of Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa programme

The Guardian - UK

The price of mediation? How Qatar could respond to Israel’s attack

The attack has called into question how Qatar might respond, the future of its mediator role, and its defence alliances.

Al Jazeera

Israeli attack on Hamas leaders in quiet Qatar shocks Gulf allies, tests US ties

The tiny, wealthy Gulf Arab state of Qatar has long hosted the biggest American military base in the Middle East

The Independent UK

US bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities is Trump’s biggest gamble yet as president

Much could go wrong for the US and the Middle East as Trump and Netanyahu pursue the disempowerment of Iran

The Guardian - UK

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Tuesday briefing: What Israel really wants in Iran – and what might come next

In today’s newsletter: Whether or not regime change is even desirable to Benjamin Netanyahu, a sudden transformation in Tehran looks very unlikely

The Guardian - UK

Gulf Countries Fear Israel-Iran Spillover

Gulf countries on Friday unanimously condemned Israel's strikes on Iran, fearing an escalation that could threaten economic interests and security.

International Business Times

International opinion has rounded on Israel, but it’s not enough to force Netanyahu’s hand

Condemnation alone won’t change Israel’s trajectory. For that, concrete action on sanctions and Palestinian statehood is required, says Sanam Vakil, director of Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa programme

The Guardian - UK

Trump's Return Boosts Israel's Pro-settlement Right: Experts

US President Donald Trump's return to power has emboldened Israeli leaders' push to increase military presence in Gaza and reinvigorated right-wing ambitions to annex the occupied West Bank, experts say.

International Business Times

Israel has chosen military occupation over a ceasefire in Gaza. Where does this end?

The latest escalation and attempts to dismantle the Palestinian leadership are utterly at odds with peace negotiations, says Chatham House research fellow Sanam Vakil

The Guardian - UK

Fear and uncertainty in Golan Heights as Israeli troops drive deeper into Syria

On the high rocky plateau, the fall of Bashar al-Assad has sown complicated and contradictory emotions

The Guardian - UK

Can Syrian rebels maintain momentum and take Damascus?

Assad’s forces have offered little resistance so far, as attention turns to how his allies will react

The Guardian - UK

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The Guardian - UK

Impact of Hezbollah assassinations may take months to emerge

Targeting of group’s leaders has failed to win Israel significant strategic advantage in past, let alone deal fatal blow

Al Jazeera

As Iran’s run-off election approaches, efforts to get the vote out continue

Painted as ‘moderate vs conservative’, the vote is being closely watched.

The Guardian - UK

Hassan Nasrallah: the man who has led Hezbollah to the brink of war with Israel

Conventional wisdom suggested he would resist triggering full-scale war but the ground appears to be shifting

The Guardian - UK

Iran’s supreme leader sets its hardline foreign policies: expect more of the same

Experts say shift in direction, including on nuclear issue, is unlikely after death of president and foreign minister

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The Guardian - UK

Why Israel’s attack on Iranian consulate in Syria was a gamechanger

A war long fought through proxies, assassinations and strikes outside Israel has spilled into the open

The Guardian - UK

Antony Blinken arrives in Israel amid fresh US push to stop war spreading

US secretary of state poised for meetings with leaders who have so far proved resistant to pressure from Washington

The Guardian - UK

Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, Iran … how far could war in the Middle East spread?

Attacks in the Red Sea. An airstrike in Baghdad. As the conflict with Hamas bleeds across borders, is wider violence inevitable?

Al Jazeera

Will the Houthi Red Sea attacks destabilise Yemen’s fragile peace?

The strikes have helped the Yemeni group gain recruits – and a domestic buildup of might could strain ceasefire attempts

Al Jazeera

Beyond Gaza: How Yemen’s Houthis gain from attacking Red Sea ships

The group’s position on a critical maritime choke point gives them leverage in diplomatic talks over Yemen’s future.

Al Jazeera

Israel’s war on Gaza means Arab normalisation is ‘off the table’: Experts

Experts say assault will impact Israel’s planned normalisation with Arab nations and downgrade US hegemony in region.

WEKU

With the Israel-Hamas war, Sunni and Shia armed groups find uncommon unity

The war draws together Iran-backed Shia and Sunni militants in what appears to be closer cooperation between groups that differ in ideology but are united by opposition to Israel and the U.S.

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