The ceasefire announcement between the US and Iran has been met with understandable relief. Talks are now set to take place in Islamabad on Friday, offering a chance to step back from the immediate danger of a wider war. This moment should not be mistaken for a resolution – not least as on Wednesday afternoon, fresh news emerged that Iran has not re-opened the strait of Hormuz. It should, more accurately, be understood as a pause – an opportunity to test pathways towards a difficult but necessary political settlement.
Despite claims of success from all sides, the reality is that no party was winning the war. President Donald Trump has framed the conflict as both a military victory and a step towards regime change in Iran. Yet the war was ill-conceived, built on the assumption that it would be quick and decisive. Instead it proved far more costly and damaging to US credibility. It did not produce regime change. Rather, it led to the promotion and consolidation of new, untested harder-line leadership at the head of the same political system. The structure of the Islamic Republic remains intact, demonstrating its capacity to absorb shock and consolidate its authority.
