Donald Trump, a self-confessed risk-taker, has taken the greatest gamble – not just with his political reputation and the future of the Middle East, but arguably with the whole concept of military intervention as a way to solve intractable geopolitical problems.
If the US president succeeds – and there will be many rival interpretations and metrics of success in the weeks ahead – it is possible he will have disempowered Iran, and diminished the global influence of a regime that has for 40 years sponsored threats against the west. In the process his personal authority will have been enhanced, and his next three years in office will be a triumph that may exacerbate some of his worst authoritarian and impulsive traits.
