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The Latest Breaking News from Michael Gapen

Trump has already hit peak tariff, Morgan Stanley says. His new 15% levy might not even be legal

Morgan Stanley has written many tariff diaries over the past nine months or so. It’s calling a peak in its latest.

Fortune

Fed set to keep rates steady as Trump threatens bank's independence

This week's meeting will be overshadowed by the revelation that the Justice Department has opened a criminal investigation into the Fed, threatening central bank independence.

Euronews

Fed expected to keep rates unchanged as Chair Powell pivots back to economics

After two weeks of intense political and legal scrutiny, the Federal Reserve will seek to make this week’s meeting about interest rates as straightforward and uneventful as possible, though President Donald Trump probably still won’t like the result

The Independent UK

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The 4.9% mystery: U.S. economy sees productivity surge, but drivers remain an 'open question,' top economist says

"We believe much of the rise is cyclical," Morgan Stanley economists noted in the report.

Fortune

Trump's tariffs may be bringing in a lot of revenue but they've also been a 'tax on capital, so far,' top economist says

The “mystery” of the 2025 economy is vastly different from the record profit margins of 2021 and 2022, Morgan Stanley’s Michael Gapen says.

Fortune

Stock Market Today: S&P 500 Extends Longest Win Streak Since November

The Nasdaq also extended its stretch of consecutive gains to eight as Advanced Micro Devices popped on M&A news.

Kiplinger

Stock Market Today: S&P 500, Nasdaq Notch Seven Days of Gains

The main indexes closed out the session and week higher as the stock market rebound continued.

Kiplinger

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Top economist Mohamed El-Erian warns an emergency Fed rate cut could reinforce a negative spiral and help spark a recession

“It’s a little bit like wanting to go to the emergency room for a cough,” El-Erian told Fortune.

Fortune

Wall Street Reacts To Jobs Report With Fear And Uncertainty

Wall Street reacts with 'Extreme Fear' as jobs report disappoints, but experts remain cautiously optimistic about US economy's resilience.

Top News

“Billionaires Should Not Financially Exist”: Guy Explains Economy In “Crayon Eating” Terms

A huge concern for many members of Generation Z and younger millennials is (not) being able to afford a home. For many people, owning property is a pipe dream. The post “Billionaires Should Not Financially Exist”: Guy Explains Economy In “Crayon Eating” Terms first appeared on Bored Panda.

Bored Panda

Jerome Powell could spark a serious stock market surge—even without cutting rates, Wall Street guru Ed Yardeni says

Yardeni already sees a 20% chance of a “melt-up” for the stock market, but if Powell “sings a dovish tune," he promised to raise those odds.

Fortune

Bank of America warned of a mild recession at the beginning of the year. Now, it says the Fed is close to ‘sticking’ a soft landing

History shows only one successful soft landing in 60 years of rate hikes. This time could be a second.

Fortune

With interest rate hikes in Jerome Powell’s rearview mirror, Wall Street starts a new guessing game: Timing when the Fed will cut

With Powell touting “progress” on inflation, the Fed predicted three rate hikes next year—but many on Wall Street see four or even five.

Fortune

‘Imagine no recession, it’s easy if you try.’ Bank of America flip-flops on its recession call, arguing a ‘soft landing’ is on the way

The investment bank has been predicting a recession since the summer of 2022. A full year later, it’s having second thoughts.

Fortune

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Fortune

‘There is nothing not to like’ in June’s ultra-soft inflation report, top strategist says—and Wall Street is starting to cheer the Fed’s firefighting

“It’s too early to pop the champagne,” Ronald Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard, told Fortune, “but it’s not too early to start chilling the bottle.”

Fortune

3 things that could still go wrong for the U.S. economy, Bank of America’s chief economist says

Despite recent bullish economic data, Michael Gapen says he still expects a “mild recession” by the start of 2024.

Fortune

There won’t be a true recession anytime soon—but a ‘growth recession’ is still on the menu next year, BofA warns

Bank of America's chief economist Michael Gapen revised his recession forecast again this week, citing strength in the labor market—but he says a "growth recession" is still coming in 2024.

Fortune

Bank of America sees inflation falling to this number by the end of next year—but it’ll take a recession to get there

Bank of America says a “mild recession” will raise the unemployment rate to 5.5% next year and cool inflation.

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Benzinga

Did The Drop In CPI Inflation Impact The Outlook For Interest Rates?

The U.S. Federal Reserve recently raised its target Fed funds rate by 0.75% for the fourth time in five months as it attempts to get inflation under control.

Benzinga

Why The Fed Needs To 'Break The Labor Market' To Avoid A 'Wage-Price Spiral'

Another hot consumer price index (CPI) reading for September means the Federal Reserve will continue to aggressively tighten monetary policy for the time being.

Tribune News Service

Meet the doomsayers: 5 who say US economy will keep shrinking

Only a minority of economists correctly predicted that the U.S. economy would contract last quarter. The number who expect it to keep shrinking in the current period is even smaller.

WEKU

Another big Fed rate hike is here to battle inflation. Economy hangs in balance

U.S. Federal Reserve raises rates for fourth time in 2022, this time by another three-quarters of a percentage point to battle inflation. It's at a size and pace we haven't seen since the 1980s.

Benzinga

Why A 1% July Interest Rate Hike May Be Off The Table

The U.S. Federal Reserve raised its target Fed funds rate by 0.75% in June, its first interest rate hike of that size since 1994. With this month's Federal Open Market Committee meeting just around the corner, investors are still debating whether the Fed will opt for another 0.75% rate hike…

People

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