Bank of America sees inflation falling to this number by the end of next year—but it’ll take a recession to get there

U.S. President Joe Biden stands after delivering remarks on lowering costs for American families at Irvine Valley College in Orange County on October 14, 2022 in Irvine, California. (Credit: Mario Tama/Getty Images)

Inflation has been a thorn in the side of the Federal Reserve and the Biden administration for more than a year, but Bank of America’s chief U.S. economist Michael Gapen says the worst of the price hikes are over.

Gapen argues that year-on-year inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), will sink to just 3.2% by the fourth quarter of next year. That’s quite the drop from June’s 9.1% peak, and October's 7.7% figure.