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The Latest Breaking News from GDP

Inflation to rise to 3.2% for 2025 as OBR slashes growth forecast

The Government’s official forecaster has also warned that interest rates are set to stay higher for longer

The Independent UK

Inflation to rise to 3.2% for 2025 as growth forecast slashed – OBR

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said on Wednesday that it expects UK gross domestic product (GDP) to rise by 1% in 2025.

Evening Standard

Forbes hails ‘strong start to the year’ after economy grew 0.3% in January

The Deputy First Minister welcomed the figures ‘in the context of global economic uncertainty’.

Evening Standard

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Scotland economy outperforming UK as whole, new figures show

SCOTLAND recorded an increase in GDP at the start of 2025 while the UK as a whole saw the economy contract, according to new figures ...

The National (Scotland)

Recession Risk: Is It Going to Happen? Here Are the Key Clues

Recession is the word that's been making headlines as recent economic reports and especially the Atlanta Fed is stoking fears with its GDPNow real-time forecast

MarketBeat

Tackling climate crisis will increase economic growth, OECD research finds

Third of global GDP could be lost this century if climate crisis runs unchecked, says report

The Guardian - UK

Further benefits cuts planned as Rachel Reeves forced to find extra £1.6bn

Chancellor risks wrath of Labour backbenchers with spring statement set to confirm deeper cuts

The Guardian - UK

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Welfare in numbers: The facts behind Britain’s soaring benefits bill

As Labour attempts to tighten Britain’s burgeoning welfare belt, Alicja Hagopian and David Maddox investigate the true cost of the welfare state

The Independent UK

UK has highest property taxes of any developed nation, analysis shows

The country’s property tax burden was 3.7% as a proportion of gross domestic product (GDP) in the 2023/24 tax year.

Evening Standard

Should Australia increase its defence spending? We asked 5 experts

Both Labor and the Coalition are considering an increase to defence spending ahead of the federal election.

The Conversation

What are Rachel Reeves’s fiscal rules and could they be changed?

What are the economic constraints that underpin the chancellor’s spring statement – and why does she see them as vital?

The Guardian - UK

US debt could explode above 200% of GDP in two decades if Trump's tax cuts become permanent, CBO says — putting it at unsustainable levels

"Macroeconomic feedback effects would further increase interest rates and, therefore, lead to even worse fiscal outcomes," the Peter G. Peterson Foundation warned.

Fortune

US-EU trade war could cost Ireland more than €18bn, says report

Report co-authored by Irish government also finds tariffs could cause job losses and relocation of US multinationals

The Guardian - UK

Lengthy trade wars could cut global investment by one-tenth, warn economists

Uncertainty around trade will have a major impact on global growth, reducing business investment in the EU and the UK by 2% this year, Oxford Economics finds.

Euronews

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Fortune

Amid a grimmer outlook from the Fed, there’s a lone, mysterious holdout predicting stronger economic growth

The Fed’s consensus for GDP growth dropped from 2.1% to 1.7% after its latest round of economic forecasts published Wednesday.

The Independent UK

Taiwan's president says the defense budget will exceed 3% of GDP in military overhaul

Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te said Thursday that the island’s defense budget will exceed 3% of its economic output as it overhauls its military in the face of the rising threat from China

Fortune

Brian Moynihan says consumers are in a ‘classic’ situation of worrying about money but continuing to spend

Brian Moynihan said consumers, once again, are the backbone quietly propping up the American economy.

The Guardian - UK

How Covid changed the British state

Surge in national debt and NHS backlog altered the economy and expectations around crisis management

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Al Jazeera

Why has the UK government announced swingeing welfare cuts?

Prime Minister Keir Starmer says cuts will save UK billions per year, but advocacy groups slam move as ‘immoral’.

The Conversation

European defence spending: three technical reasons for political cooperation

How much would it really cost the European Union to defend itself against aggression? In the immediate term, that question, of course makes us think of Russia, but we can no longer exclude multiple other possibilities, including the potential need to defend territory – say, Greenland – from a former…

Fortune

Millennials choosing to be DINKs could push GDP down by as much as 4%

"By the time you get to 2030, you're talking about a birth rate that is wildly different to what was in the assumptions made at the beginning of the decade."

The Guardian - UK

Is Trump driving the US into a recession? – in charts

Warning lights are flashing on a dashboard of economic indicators as analysts grow alarmed about a ‘Trumpcession’

The Conversation

Treasurer Chalmers promises ‘meaningful and substantial’ cost of living help in Tuesday’s budget

Next week’s budget will have cost-of-living assistance that will be meaningful and substantial but “responsible”, Treasurer Jim Chalmers has said.

Reason

Is Trump's Trade War Causing a Recession?

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast plunged into recessionary territory, stocks wiped out $4 trillion in value, and consumers are pulling back. How long will Washington ignore the warning signs?

Euronews

OECD trims eurozone growth outlook as global trade tensions bite

The OECD has lowered its eurozone GDP growth forecast to 1.0% for 2025, down from 1.3% in December, citing weak investment and rising geopolitical risks. Global growth is also revised down to 3.1% as trade disruptions weigh on sentiment.

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