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The Latest Breaking News from GDP

UK growth forecast to slow sharply as Trump tariffs push confidence to record low

EY Item Club predicts GDP of only 0.8% this year as Ipsos poll shows three-quarters of Britons expect economy to get worse

The Guardian - UK

US tariffs threaten to derail UK economic growth, EY warns

EY said it was now expecting UK GDP to grow by 0.8% this year, down from the 1% growth projected in February.

Evening Standard

Estonian government approves additional funding to raise defence spending to 5.4% of GDP

Estonia’s government approved the multi-billion Euro plans that will see the Baltic country boost its defence investments to over 5% of GDP, in line with Trump’s demands for NATO members.

Euronews

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California’s economy surpasses Japan’s as it becomes fourth largest in world

State’s nominal GDP reaches $4.1tn, edging out Japan’s $4.02tn, ranking it behind the US, China and Germany

The Guardian - US

Germany Expects Zero GDP Growth This Year, Blames Trump Tariffs

Germany's economy is expected to post zero growth in 2025, outgoing Economy Minister Robert Habeck said Thursday, blaming US President Donald Trump's trade policy.

International Business Times

MEPs oppose Commission's overhaul of EU budget after 2027

Members of the European Parliament called for a budget of more than 1% of the EU's GDP and rejected the Commission's idea of single national plans under the EU's next long-term budget (2028-34).

Euronews

Australia needs bold ideas on defence. The Coalition’s increased spending plan falls disappointingly short

Just as voting has begun in this year’s federal election, the Coalition has released its long-awaited defence policy platform. The main focus, as expected, is a boost in defence spending to 3% of Australia’s GDP within the next decade.

The Conversation

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Dutton refuses to specify what Coalition’s $21bn of pledged defence spending would be used on

Opposition leader insists costings will be released prior to the election as Andrew Hastie says ‘America-first’ US means Australia’s defence must be prioritised

The Guardian - AU

Peter Dutton to promise Australia will boost defence spending to the 3% of GDP demanded by Trump administration

Labor’s Richard Marles says announcement is a ‘pathetic whimper’ rather than a defence policy

The Guardian - AU

Stocks Rebound Sharply on Trade Deal Optimism

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX ) (SPY ) Tuesday closed up +2.51%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI ) (DIA ) closed up +2.66%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX ) (QQQ ) closed up +2.63%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM25 ) are up +2.52%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures...

Barchart

Dollar Rebounds on US Trade Deal Optimism

The dollar index (DXY00 ) Tuesday rose by +0.65%. The dollar rallied moderately Tuesday and rebounded from Monday's 3-year low. Short covering emerged in the dollar Tuesday on trade deal optimism after US trade negotiators said they have made "significant progress" toward a bilateral trade deal with India following talks...

Barchart

Trump uncertainty set to smash Australian economy

Australia is not following the "bouncing ball" of Donald Trump's daily shifts, the treasurer says, amid predictions of a bigger-than-expected economic hit.

AAP

Stocks Climb on Trade Deal Optimism and Strong Q1 Earnings

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX ) (SPY ) today is up +1.82%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI ) (DIA ) is up +1.91%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX ) (QQQ ) is up +2.13%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM25 ) are up +1.98%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures...

Barchart

Dollar Recovers on US Trade Deal Optimism

The dollar index (DXY00 ) today is up by +0.32%. The dollar today is rebounding higher from Monday's 3-year low. Short covering emerged in the dollar today on trade deal optimism after US trade negotiators said they have made "significant progress" toward a bilateral trade deal with India following talks...

Barchart

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Barchart

Stocks Rebound on Trade Deal Optimism

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX ) (SPY ) today is up +1.30%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI ) (DIA ) is up +1.44%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX ) (QQQ ) is up +1.43%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM25 ) are up +1.54%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures...

The Guardian - UK

Spain unveils €11bn plan to reach long-delayed Nato defence spending target

Spanish PM says ‘industrial and technological plan’ will ensure country commits to spending 2% of GDP on defence

The Independent UK

Spain to reach NATO's spending goal of 2% of GDP on defense this year

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said Spain will meet NATO’s defense spending target this year as pressure grows on the eurozone’s fourth-largest economy and NATO laggard to boost its military expenditure

The Conversation

Dutton promises Coalition would increase defence spending to 3% of GDP ‘within a decade’

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton will promise a Coalition government would boost Australia’s spending on defence to 2.5% of GDP within five years and 3% within a decade.

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Evening Standard

Booming City of London's GDP soars past the £100 billion mark for first time

The Square Mile’s output is on a par with those of entire national economies such as Morocco or Slovakia.

The Guardian - AU

Re-arm, reassure and spend big: how the Asia Pacific is responding to a new era under Trump

The US president has upset global norms in the space of weeks, spurring a flurry of defence spending, diplomatic overtures and offers to boost trade

Fortune

Jamie Dimon fears reading a book in 40 years on 'How the West was lost' over military spending rows and tariff tactics

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon’s chief concern is that tariffs could prove a tipping point in the influence of the Western world.

The Conversation

US-China trade war leaves NZ worse off, but still well placed to weather the storm – new modelling

Forecasting the potential impact of Donald Trump’s turbulent tariff policies is a fraught business – and fraught for business. The United States president has changed, paused and exempted various categories of goods so often, the only certainty is uncertainty.

Newslaundry

Trump’s tariff policy is like Debashish Mohanty’s swing – unpredictable and accidental

Any minute now I'm expecting all hell to break loosePeople are crazy and times are strangeI'm locked in tight, I'm out of rangeI used to care, but things have changed.– Bob Dylan, Things Have Changed, Wonder BoysMaine revolver pehli baar uthaya hai…lekin itna jaanta hoon ki trigger dabane se goli…

Reason

Even on Pause, Trump's Trade War Runs Up a Big Price Tag

Predictions vary as to the ultimate cost, but there’s no doubt that tariffs create economic pain.

Euronews

Week ahead: ECB rate decision, China’s GDP, and major company earnings

This week, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision will take centre stage. The bank is expected to continue reducing its benchmark policy rates amid mounting economic risks linked to tariffs. In Asia, China’s GDP will be closely watched by investors.

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