The dollar index (DXY00) on Friday ended the day little changed, but fell about -0.6% on the week. The dollar traded on a weak note despite Tuesday's stronger-than-expected US GDP report of +4.3% and the reduced odds for Fed easing. The markets initially reduced the odds for a -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting to 13% from 20% after Tuesday’s GDP report, but the odds have since crept higher to the current level of 20%.
The dollar continues to see underlying weakness as the FOMC is expected to cut interest rates by about -50 bp in 2026, while the BOJ is expected to raise rates by another +25 bp in 2026, and the ECB is expected to leave rates unchanged in 2026.
