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The Latest Breaking News from Jim Reid

Markets are preparing for an international game of tariff bluff—but President Trump may no longer need to back down

Analysts including Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid and Goldman Sachs’ Sven Jari Stehn suggest Trump's sharp escalation is more likely a negotiation tactic than a firm policy shift.

Fortune

The markets are playing chicken against Trump on the assumption that the Fed will rescue them if their call is wrong

"At some stage, someone’s bluff could be called," says Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid. "If huge tariffs do get imposed on August 1st, in thin holiday markets, we could get a sizeable market reaction.”

Fortune

‘Masterful inactivity’ reigned at Fed’s latest meeting—but notes reveal more officials are coming around to Donald Trump’s way of thinking

Fed officials are increasingly split on rate cuts, though UBS’s Paul Donovan says their indecision currently amounts to little more than “masterful inactivity.”

Fortune

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Trump keeps getting in the way of the rate cut he desperately wants from Jerome Powell

Deutsche Bank argues the Fed's path to cutting is only getting more "difficult" because of Trump's changing tariff policies.

Fortune

Wall Street buoyed by Lutnick’s 10-deal pipeline, but analyst warns present calm may merely be the ‘eye of the storm’

Lutnick’s China promise did little to impress markets, but overall added to a period of relative stability. Yet one analyst warned this may be a “false dawn.”

Fortune

As Trump floats regime change to ‘Make Iran Great Again’, Deutsche Bank warns Europe has drawn the short straw in escalating conflict

Europe may have drawn the economic short straw after the U.S. intervened in Middle East tensions, while JPMorgan warns the volatility may be set to last.

Fortune

America's prized 'exceptionalism' is the collateral damage of Trump's tariff war, says Deutsche Bank

"The structural foundations of U.S. exceptionalism—particularly the ability to finance itself cheaply via the dollar’s reserve status—have begun to erode," wrote Deutsche Bank.

Fortune

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Investors may be suffering tariff whiplash but markets are set for solid May gains

As Deutsche Bank's global head of macro research Jim Reid wrote this morning, "Trading and analysing this market successfully requires a lot of luck. Unless of course I get it right and then its skill."

Fortune

Court blocking Trump tariffs torpedoes his negotiating tactic, but it’s ‘hardly the end of this story’

“We haven’t heard directly from President Trump on the matter yet, so it’s unclear how the administration might respond going forward,” one analyst notes.

Fortune

U.S. economy is experiencing 'death by a thousand cuts', says Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid says Moody's recent debt downgrade continues a drip of bad fiscal news for the American economic outlook.

Fortune

Will Moody's U.S. credit downgrade trigger 'flight to quality?'

It’s no secret the national debt is on an unsustainable path.

Fortune

Jerome Powell may finally grant Trump his interest rate wish thanks to China deal

President Trump's wish for a rate cut may be looking more realistic as economic uncertainty clears—but it still won't be happening any time soon.

Fortune

The Fed will likely keep interest rates on hold today, so markets will be watching for Trump’s reaction

If markets are hoping for some hints from Jerome Powell, the Fed chairman might disappoint.

Fortune

Trump’s ‘art of the retreat’ may signal he’s setting Powell up to take the fall for economic turmoil

Trump’s tactical retreat on key points like Fed Chair Powell and trade negotiations with China signals a change within the White House—potentially lining up a scapegoat if its policies fall flat.

Fortune

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The Independent UK

The 35 greatest debut albums of all time, from Arctic Monkeys to Ramones

These records serve as statements of intent and have the power to change or reshape the industry, inspire fellow musicians, and drive essential conversation about our understanding of music. Roisin O'Connor picks the best of the bunch

Fortune

‘The smell of stagflation’ is mounting as Trump’s Liberation Day arrives

Stagflation fears are mounting, warns Deutsche Bank, as Donald Trump's latest tariff announcements tick closer.

Fortune

Wall Street braces for Trump’s April 2 tariff deadline—it foresees 18% EU import duties and a 43% chance of a U.S. recession

Analysts expect tariffs on the EU, a key trading partner for the U.S., to settle at around 18% as recession expectations hit more than 40%.

Fortune

Warren Buffett's advice for staying calm when stocks are falling comes from a 130-year-old poem: 'Keep your head'

Investors have warned the U.S. economy is reaching “correction territory.”

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The Guardian - UK

What do Trump’s tariffs mean for US-China trade?

The US president hopes tariffs will help close the huge trade gap by potentially pressuring Beijing into a new deal

Fortune

Trump crying wolf over tariffs has already convinced Wall Street that threats will be short-lived

An eleventh-hour deal achieved President Trump’s political aims, but Wall Street remains concerned that tariffs will become a permanent threat in negotiations.

Fortune

Tariffs are exactly what Trump promised—the market ‘completely underpriced risks,’ says Deutsche Bank economist

Deutsche Bank has a wake-up call for analysts who denied Trump would deliver on tax rhetoric—but UBS is questioning how quickly the White House may retreat.

The Guardian - UK

The first quarter of the 21st century wasn’t great for investors. The next needs an AI boost

Debt, demographics and geopolitics aside, swing factor is whether artificial intelligence can revolutionise productivity

Barchart

Why Gold and Inflation Are the Keys to Long-Term Investing Success

A Deutsche Bank historical study of U.S. stocks found the first part of this century to be the second-worst period ever going back to 1800. Even more shocking is that gold easily outperformed the S&P 500 this century.

Louder

“Jaws dropped when they came on. It was so intense.” The Jesus And Mary Chain's Jim Reid on the life-changing impact of Joy Division

Joy Division opened up for Buzzcocks in Glasgow in October 1979. Jim Reid from The Jesus And Mary Chain was there, and the gig changed his life

The Guardian - UK

‘Only three more songs till I kick your ass!’ Rock’n’roll’s biggest onstage bust-ups

Jane’s Addiction’s future is in doubt after a mid-song spat last weekend – but from the Kinks to Oasis, such squabbles are extremely common

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