Markets have convinced themselves they’ll get a September base rate cut. Now they’re eyeing a double reduction

United States Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent (L) and Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States Jerome Powell (R) (Credit: Artur Widak—NurPhoto/Getty Images)

• A cooler July inflation reading has markets pricing in a 96% chance of a September Fed rate cut, though debate continues over its size. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is pushing for 50 bps to offset missed opportunities earlier this summer, but some analysts warn that core inflation rising to 3.1% and upcoming jobs data could still delay action.

Investors are pricing in a more than 96% chance of the Fed cutting the base rate in September, following a cooler than expected inflation report for July, released yesterday.