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Fortune
Fortune
Eleanor Pringle

Markets are preparing for an international game of tariff bluff—but President Trump may no longer need to back down

resident Donald Trump participates in a round table event at the Hill Country Youth Event Center to discuss last week's flash flooding on July 11, 2025 in Kerrville, Texas. Trump traveled to Texas one week after flash flooding along the Guadalupe River swept through cities, mobile home parks and summer camps, killing 120 people. (Credit: Chip Somodevilla - Getty Images)
  • With Trump’s August 1 tariff deadline looming, analysts including Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid and Goldman Sachs’ Sven Jari Stehn suggest the sharp escalation is more likely a negotiation tactic than a firm policy shift. While EU leaders are delaying countermeasures in hopes diplomacy prevails, UBS warns that if the tariffs are actually imposed, it could significantly raise the risk of a U.S. recession.

In a little over two weeks, the full effects of President Trump’s tariff regime are (finally) due to come into effect.

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