The Latest Breaking News from Claudia Sahm

The Sahm rule lets us get in front of recessions – so alerts should be flashing in the Treasury and RBA

The author of the 'Sahm Rule' is less worried about rising unemployment this time, even though October's rate was up 0.5% from a recent low...a jump typically associated with the onset of recession.

Editorial: Growing the economy by shrinking it first is a high-risk political strategy

There was a time when we were sure that interest rates wouldn’t change for three years. That illusion was cruelly dashed a year ago.

Last week saw a win and a loss for health care. North Carolina became the 40th state to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act. That’s a big victory for the estimated 600,000 low-income adults in North Carolina who will now be eligible for government insurance and join the millions…

The Biden administration is requiring any semiconductor manufacturer that applies for more than $150 million in subsidies under the Chips Act to submit “plans to provide both their facility and construction workers with access to affordable, accessible, reliable, and high-quality childcare.” This requirement is expected to cover fewer than 200,000…

Investor sentiment elevated in response to favorable macro data and downsized rate hikes. However, further rate hikes after the stronger-than-expected job report are expected to keep the market volatile. Therefore, quality dividend stocks yielding over 4%, BHP Group (BHP), Honda Motor Co. (HMC), and Rent-A-Center (RCII), might be ideal buys…

Ambitious policy solutions can break through partisan paralysis and change America. It's time to go big

Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell snatched the cookie jar out of the stock market's hands on Dec. 14, when he followed up an announcement of a dovish half-point interest rate increase with a warning that the Fed didn't think it had wrung enough inflation out of the economy…