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The Latest Breaking News from Claudia Sahm

Experts are warning of a global recession. Here’s what that actually means

While warning about a 25 percent chance of an economic downturn, Goldman Sachs said the US economy remains “fine overall,” and that the recession risk is “limited”

The Independent UK

Warning signs of US recession may be bad news for Kamala Harris

Cracks in labour market provide Trump with evidence for his message that Biden has been disaster for the economy

The Guardian - UK

Powell faces a market mutiny if he doesn't make a September rate cut—Wall Street has 'locked in' timings after unemployment concerns

"The bottom line is that the weaker-than-expected July employment report led us to change our baseline expectation for the first Fed to September."

Fortune

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Despite the stock crash, the AI-fueled bubble will soon regain momentum, economist says

Capital Economics said a recession is unlikely and growth will even reaccelerate after a soft patch in the second half of this year.

Fortune

Is the US headed for a recession?

The unexpected rise of US unemployment rate to a nearly three-year high has shaken the market and split economists.

Al Jazeera

Weak jobs report shows 'there’s a strong case' for Fed rate cuts before next meeting, economist says

"From a risk management perspective we think there’s a strong case to act before September 18th."

Fortune

Unemployment rise spurs fears of slowdown, yet recession signals have been wrong — so far

A surprising rise in the unemployment rate last month has rattled financial markets and set off new worries about the threat of a recession — but it could also prove to be a false alarm

The Independent UK

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This accurate recession indicator is flashing red, but the ‘Sahm rule’ creator says ‘this time really could be different’

“I am not concerned that, at this moment, we are in a recession,” Claudia Sahm told Fortune, adding that “no one should be in panic mode today, though it appears some might be.”

Fortune

What's the Sahm Rule? Alarming Jobs Report Raises Recession Risk.

A key indicator has predicted every recession since 1970, and the alarm just sounded.

Reason

US added just 114,000 jobs in July, unemployment rate hits 4.3% as interest rates take economic toll

U.S. hiring decelerated sharply last month in the face of high interest rates as employers added a weak 114,000 jobs

The Independent UK

Wall Street is worrying about the ‘Sahm Rule,’ which predicts recessions—but its creator is not, yet

Claudia Sahm is cautioning against reading too much into her famous rule that suggests the U.S. is on the brink of a recession.

Fortune

A second Trump presidency would send Australia down a dark economic path. Here’s how it might play out

Under Trump’s tariff plans, our GDP would take a hit amid a nightmare trade war – and while we’re at it, forget emissions reductions or global agreements

The Guardian - AU

U.S. corporate bankruptcies are soaring above the pandemic-era peak, adding to the economic alarms bells piling up

June saw 75 filings, up from 62 in May and above the pandemic-era peak of 74 in July 2020, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Fortune

One of the most accurate recession indicators is close to sounding the alarm as unemployment continues to rise

While the current jobless rate is still historically low, its rate of increase could be a sign of deteriorating economic conditions.

Fortune

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Al Jazeera

Will the US unemployment rate continue at historic lows?

US job growth has continued at a steady clip in months since COVID pandemic, but experts are looking for warning signs.

The Guardian - AU

Now is not the time to do anything more to slow the economy – it’s already in danger of stalling

The Sahm rule lets us get in front of recessions – so alerts should be flashing in the Treasury and RBA

WEKU

The 'R' word: Why this time might be an exception to a key recession rule

The author of the 'Sahm Rule' is less worried about rising unemployment this time, even though October's rate was up 0.5% from a recent low...a jump typically associated with the onset of recession.

Fortune

Mortgage rates are dropping fast after a shock jobs report set off a series of dominoes on Wall Street—The housing market can thank Detroit's striking auto workers

To all the homebuyers dreading the toxic mix of low inventory and 8% mortgage rates, how does a cooling economy and a 7.4% rate sound?

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The Independent UK

Federal Reserve is poised to leave rates unchanged as it tracks progress toward a 'soft landing'

Since Federal Reserve officials last met in July, the economy has moved in the direction they hoped to see: Inflation continues to ease, if more slowly than most Americans would like, while growth remains solid and the job market cools

Fortune

The costs of extreme heat, at least $100B a year, will rise to staggering levels, says the former Fed economist who’s so influential they named a recession indicator after her

The cost of heat to the U.S. economy could more than triple in less than 20 years, hitting manual laborers hardest.

The Guardian - AU

The RBA wants to raise unemployment to fight inflation – but who will that hurt the most?

Groups who benefited from strong jobs growth will be the first to lose work come a recession

The Guardian - UK

The Guardian view on Rishi Sunak’s economics: recession is an acceptable price to pay

Editorial: Growing the economy by shrinking it first is a high-risk political strategy

The New Daily

Alan Kohler: The confusing, ridiculous state of economic forecasting

There was a time when we were sure that interest rates wouldn’t change for three years. That illusion was cruelly dashed a year ago.

Tribune News Service

Commentary: A Medicaid catastrophe is looming. It can be avoided

Last week saw a win and a loss for health care. North Carolina became the 40th state to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act. That’s a big victory for the estimated 600,000 low-income adults in North Carolina who will now be eligible for government insurance and join the millions…

Tribune News Service

Temper your expectations on child care and the Chips Act

The Biden administration is requiring any semiconductor manufacturer that applies for more than $150 million in subsidies under the Chips Act to submit “plans to provide both their facility and construction workers with access to affordable, accessible, reliable, and high-quality childcare.” This requirement is expected to cover fewer than 200,000…

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