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Fortune
Fortune
Will Daniel

This accurate recession indicator is flashing red, but the ‘Sahm rule’ creator says ‘this time really could be different’

(Credit: Spencer Platt—Getty Images)

A weak July jobs report just triggered one of the most well-known, and historically accurate, recession indicators: the Sahm Rule. But the rule’s inventor, Claudia Sahm, pushed back against the plethora of doomsday narratives that gained traction after its triggering on Friday.

“I am not concerned that, at this moment, we are in a recession,” she told Fortune, adding that “no one should be in panic mode today, though it appears some might be.”

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