One of the most accurate recession indicators is close to sounding the alarm as unemployment continues to rise

discouraged woman sitting on steps (Credit: Getty Images)

The U.S. unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% in June from 4% in the prior month, nearly triggering a reliable recession indicator.

While unemployment is still historically low, its rate of increase could be a sign of deteriorating economic conditions. That's where the so-called Sahm Rule comes in.