In eight states holding legislative elections this year, fewer than 5% of seats would need to change party control to break an existing supermajority. We call those state supermajorities highly exposed to breaking. If a majority party loses its supermajority, they lose the ability to override a governor's veto without votes from the minority party.
The Republican supermajority in Florida is the closest to breaking, where a one-seat loss in the Senate would bring the party's majority below the 27-seat threshold required to override the governor’s vetoes.
Ballotpedia assessed the possibility that existing state legislative supermajorities could be broken and the potential for new supermajorities to form in the 2026 elections. According to this analysis, 13 state legislative supermajorities are exposed to breaking in the 2026 elections, including the eight rated highly exposed. Democrats are defending five exposed supermajorities and Republicans are defending eight.
