Scotland know they have it all on the line in their final group game of Euro 2024 if they don’t want to make an immediate exit from the tournament.
The Scots have never before reached the knockout stages of a major competition, but still harbour hopes of making history when they take on their final Group A rivals Hungary in Sunday night’s game.
Scotland were battered 5-1 by hosts Germany in their opening game of Euro 2024 before sharing a 1-1 draw with Switzerland, meaning it all comes down to their third and final clash. So what do they need to progress to the last 16?
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What Scotland need to get to the Euro 2024 knockout stages
Scotland cannot possibly come top of their group, and they are very unlikely to finish in second place.
The only way that can happen is if they beat Hungary, Germany beat Switzerland, and the two scorelines mean Scotland make up a six-goal swing in goal difference required to overtake the Swiss (their draw means head-to-head record is irrelevant).
Scotland’s more realistic hope is to beat Hungary and hope that’s enough to put them through as one of the four best third-placed teams across all six groups. History suggests that is likely to be the case, as no side has ever got at least four points and failed to progress since the tournament expanded to 24 teams in 2016; however, we cannot declare it a mathematical certainty at this stage.
If Scotland lose to Hungary, they will definitely finish bottom of the group and will be eliminated.
If Steve Clarke’s side claim a point against Hungary, they will almost certainly be out too, unless there is some ridiculous turn of events in at least two of the other groups that mean at least two other third-placed sides finish with two points or fewer – which is unlikely to happen. (Mind you, it would happen in Group B if Spain and Italy both avoid defeat in their remaining games).
Even then, Scotland’s goal difference could probably put them at a significant disadvantage when compared with any other third-placed sides who finished with two points.
That means it is probably win or bust for Scotland in their bid to finally end their wait for knockout football at a major tournament.
Scotland Euro 2024 group stage scenarios
IF SCOTLAND WIN: They finish third with four points unless Switzerland lose to Germany and Scotland are able to make up a six-goal swing in goal difference on Switzerland. Scotland would then progress if at least two other third-placed sides in the other groups end up with an inferior record.
IF SCOTLAND DRAW: They definitely finish third with two points, and must then hope that at least two other third-placed sides in the other groups end up with a worse record.
IF SCOTLAND LOSE: They definitely finish bottom of the group and are eliminated.
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