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The Latest Breaking News from US Federal Reserve

The S&P 500 Is Walking a Tightrope — And It May Be About to Fall. Here's Why.

The S&P 500 looks like it's walking a tightrope right now, and every day it seems closer to slipping off. Here's the bear case for the S&P 500.

Barchart

Stocks Retreat From Initial Highs as Oil Prices Rebound

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX ) (SPY ) today is up +0.08%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI ) (DIA ) is up +0.30%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX ) (QQQ ) is down -0.14%. After initially opening higher, stocks are now mixed. WTI crude oil has rebounded off...

Barchart

The Window Is Narrowing: Why Locking In a 4% Yield Still Makes Sense Before Markets Shift

The clock isn’t striking midnight just yet, but the market is definitely glancing at its watch. Right now, investors have a chance to lock in yields around 4% — a level that hasn’t always been easy to find over the past decade. And while there’s no official Fed deadline, the…

The Free Financial Advisor

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Key inflation gauge worsened in January, before Iran war lifted gas prices

An inflation gauge closely monitored by the Federal Reserve moved higher in January in the latest sign that prices were persistently elevated even before the Iran war caused spikes in oil and gas costs

The Independent UK

Trump once again pushes Powell to drop rates 'IMMEDIATELY,' but a zero-cut year looks increasingly likely

"We have revised our baseline to show only one rate cut in 2026 ... but it is entirely plausible that the Fed won’t deliver any rate cuts this year."

Fortune

Wall Street buckles in for a long war as Hormuz remains closed and Trump says he has ‘plenty of time’

Three words spooking the market.

Fortune

S&P Futures Gain as Oil Prices Retreat, U.S. PCE Inflation and GDP Data in Focus

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are trending up +0.18% this morning, rebounding slightly from yesterday’s sharp losses as oil prices steadied, while investors await a flurry of U.S. economic data, with particular attention on the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge and the second estimate of fourth-quarter GDP.

Barchart

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Dollar Climbs and Gold Falls as Weak Stocks Boost Liquidity Demand

The dollar index (DXY00 ) on Thursday rose by +0.51% and posted a 3.5-month high. Thursday’s stock slump boosted liquidity demand for the dollar. Also, higher T-note yields on Thursday have strengthened the dollar’s interest rate differentials. Thursday’s US economic news was mostly supportive for the dollar as weekly jobless...

Barchart

Goldman just raised recession odds to 25%. Here's what Trump's war economy is doing to jobs

Payrolls shed 92,000 jobs in February, openings keep falling, and Goldman says the breakeven rate isn't being met. The labor market is sending a warning.

Fortune

Trump just put Republicans' hold on the Senate at risk while sending the national debt higher, Morgan Stanley says

The firm's Global Investment Office just dropped a sweeping analysis of the U.S.-Iran conflict. It should alarm every Republican heading into the midterms.

Fortune

Dollar Boosted by Liquidity Demand as Stocks Falter

The dollar index (DXY00 ) today is up by +0.34%. Today's stock slump has boosted liquidity demand for the dollar. Also, higher T-note yields today have strengthened the dollar's interest rate differentials. Today's US economic news was mostly supportive for the dollar as weekly jobless claims rose less than expected...

Barchart

Recession and stagflation risks are rising due to Iran conflict, as economist warns it’s ‘getting harder to argue disruption will be temporary’

"Clearly, the longer that oil remains at these levels, expectations of a sustained shock will only grow," Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid said.

Fortune

Target Offers Discounts Across 3,000 Products as Cost of Living Concerns Grow

Target cuts prices on over 3,000 items this spring to help families save amid rising living costs.

International Business Times

Nasdaq Rises Amid Middle East Uncertainty: Stock Market Today

Governments and global organizations are responding to the threat of a potential energy crisis stemming from the war in the Middle East.

Kiplinger

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Barchart

Dollar Mildly Higher as T-note Yield Rises

The dollar index (DXY00 ) is up +0.17% on support from today's +4.7 bp rise in the 10-year T-note yield, which supported the dollar's interest rate differentials. Also, today's +4% rally in WTI crude oil prices is hawkish for Fed policy and supportive of the dollar. Today's US CPI report...

The Guardian - US

US inflation stayed flat at 2.4% in February before effects of war on Iran kicked in

Effect of war on prices not reflected in data, as Trump says only ‘fools’ would think oil price shocks would be significant

Fortune

Trump may claim the war is 'complete,' but Wall Street expects the Fed to stay hawkish on its effect long after the conflict has ended

Even if the war winds down around month-end, that's still enough time "to cause psychic damage to investors, consumers, and adversely affect economic data for the April release cycle in May," Macquarie economists warned.

Barchart

S&P Futures Waver as Middle East Conflict Uncertainty Persists, U.S. Inflation Data in Focus

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are trending down -0.09% this morning, swinging between gains and losses as uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict remains high, while investors await key U.S. inflation data.

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The Independent UK

Inflation likely to spike in coming months after tame February reading

Inflation likely was elevated last month even before the spike in oil and gas prices of the past two weeks that is expected to send consumer costs soaring in the months ahead

Barchart

Dollar Closes Little Changed as Oil Prices Plunge

The dollar index (DXY00 ) on Tuesday spent most of the day on the downside, then recovered a bit in the afternoon, ending little changed. The dollar came under downward pressure from Tuesday's nearly -12% plunge in oil prices, which was dovish for Fed policy. However, the dollar had underlying...

Kiplinger

Stocks End Mixed as Risk-On Rally Falters Late: Stock Market Today

Uncertainty about the geopolitical situation continues to drive financial markets up and down.

Kiplinger

The February CPI Report Is Tame, but Higher Inflation’s Coming

The February CPI report arrived in line with estimates, but rising oil prices will likely lift inflation in March.

Barchart

Dollar Trades Mildly Lower as Oil Prices Plunge

The dollar index (DXY00 ) today is mildly lower by -0.14%. The dollar is trading lower on today's sharp decline in oil prices, which is dovish for Fed policy. However, the dollar has underlying support from today's +2.3 bp rise in the 10-year T-note yield. Today's existing home sales report...

Euronews

Iran war shocks continue to ripple through the global economy

The Iran war is driving up energy and fertiliser prices, threatening food shortages in poor countries, destabilising fragile states and complicating inflation control at central banks worldwide.

GOBankingRates

4 Scenarios for Interest Rates in 2026 and How to Prepare

American interest rates in the 2020s have been defined by extraordinary volatility, swinging from record lows during the COVID-19 pandemic era of 2020 and 2021 to the massive surge of 2022 and 2023 in response to subsequent high inflation, all before stabilizing throughout the past two years. Economists generally believe…

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