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The Latest Breaking News from the Reserve Bank

Magic number that could decide an interest rate hike

Traders now tip a greater-than-50 per cent chance of an interest rate hike in February, but some pundits are holding out hope for a Reserve Bank reprieve.

AAP

Healthy jobs market spells rate pain for borrowers

Upcoming inflation data will be make or break for a Reserve Bank rate hike decision following stronger than expected jobs figures, economists say.

AAP

Complacency risk for economy as tariff wars re-emerge

A deterioration in the job market could spare Australian borrowers interest rate hikes in 2026, an economist says.

AAP

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In a world going to hell, investors are flocking to gold. Australia could have had much more of it

A decision to sell two-thirds of Australia’s gold reserves in the 1990s is starting to look like a bad one as global uncertainty reigns

The Guardian - AU

Rate hike 'risks hurting' fragile consumer sentiment

A fresh survey of Australian consumer sentiment doesn't make for encouraging reading as the central bank weighs lifting the cash rate at its next meeting.

AAP

RBA official's advice to borrowers over inflation data

Mortgage holders have been warned not to expect relief anytime soon with the latest inflation figures unlikely to significantly influence the RBA's thinking.

AAP

Australia’s inflation slows to 3.4%, easing fears of a February interest rate hike

Consumer prices rose less than markets expected in the year to November, but economists warn rate rises will still be needed in 2026

The Guardian - AU

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Rates hike still on the table despite softer inflation

A sharper-than-expected fall in inflation will encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia, but underlying price growth remains too hot for comfort.

AAP

Dishing the public dosh to force RBA's hand on rates

With the government unlikely to restrain public spending, the Reserve Bank will have to lift rates in 2026 to keep inflation under control, economists say.

AAP

Politics with Michelle Grattan: Jim Chalmers on the Bondi terror attack and the mid-year budget update

The mid-year budget update would normally be big news. But this week it’s been entirely overshadowed by the devastating Bondi terror attack.

The Conversation

The budget update shows a slight improvement in the federal deficit, but it’s mostly due to good luck

The federal government’s mid-year budget update shows a modest improvement in the deficit forecast in 2025–26, but much of this comes from a larger-than-forecast tax take.

The Conversation

No wonder Michele Bullock’s dramatic departure from the RBA’s interest rate script left markets swinging wildly

Less than two months ago the market was predicting the cash rate would be at 3.35% but that by May next year a further cut to 3.1% was almost certain

The Guardian - AU

As the population ages, the RBA’s interest rate policy is no longer fit for purpose

An extensive government review of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in 2023 made 51 specific recommendations to enable “an RBA fit for the future”. But the narrow terms of reference confined the review to an economic lens.

The Conversation

Rate rise flagged as RBA does a Grinch with no Xmas cut

More rate relief for borrowers has essentially been ruled out by the Reserve Bank governor as the central bank mulls over when to lift rates again.

AAP

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AAP

Christmas rate relief off the table at last RBA meeting

The official cash rate is expected to remain on hold when the Reserve Bank decides on interest rates for the last time in 2025.

The Guardian - AU

Financial markets now certain the RBA will hike interest rates in 2026

The changed outlook is a result of unwelcome inflation data, but could slow down the hot property market

AAP

Splurging shoppers push economy over speed limit

The sharpest rise in household spending in 21 months suggests the economy is continuing to grow in strength, heightening Reserve Bank fears about inflation.

The Conversation

Australian economic growth is solid but not spectacular. Rate cuts are off the table

Australia’s economy grew by a softer-than-expected 0.4% in the September quarter, slowing from 0.6% growth in the June quarter. It confirms the recovery is tracking forward but without strong momentum.

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AAP

Slight rise tipped for September GDP figures

Economic growth and household spending data will be released to form the final picture for the Reserve Bank before its last meeting for 2025.

AAP

'Very positive news': ray of light post inflation shock

Equipment investment in Australia's IT sector almost doubled in three months amid a surge in data centre projects, which could help revive productivity growth.

The Conversation

Inflation jumps in October, adding to pressure on government to make budget savings

Annual inflation rose to a 16-month high of 3.8% in October, adding to pressure on the government as it seeks to make savings across the public sector.

AAP

Early Christmas for RBA with landmark inflation print

Inflation data will dominate the domestic economic dashboard, while the UK budget and New Zealand rate cuts are on the agenda abroad.

The Conversation

Real wages have grown – just – over the past year. But they’re still down near 2011 levels

New data show wages have risen by a bit more than inflation, but overall real wages are still languishing near 2011 levels.

The Conversation

Years in the making, the first complete monthly inflation report is almost here

A new “complete” monthly consumer price index (CPI) will be released next week, and will become Australia’s primary measure of inflation.

AAP

RBA reveals what would rule out more interest rate cuts

Barring a material rise in unemployment or weaker-than-expected economic growth, mortgage holders can just about give up hope for any more interest rate relief.

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