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The Latest Breaking News from Recession

Ceasefire will be indefinite, Trump says, as top economist puts risk of recession at 40% as Hormuz remains closed

Everything you need to know before you reach the office this morning.

Fortune

UK 'On Brink' Of Recession — 250,000 People Could Lose Jobs By Mid-2027 Due To Iran War

EY Item Club warns the UK will 'flirt with recession' as the Iran conflict oil shock pushes unemployment to 5.8 per cent and halves GDP growth forecast.

International Business Times UK

Quarter of a million people could lose job by middle of 2027 as UK ‘flirts with recession’, analysis says

Twin reports from top accounting firms underline scale of economic threat as Iran war shatters business confidence

The Guardian - UK

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UK to narrowly avoid recession and jobless rate to surge, Item Club warns

The independent forecasting group said interest rates will remain on hold in 2026 despite soaring inflation caused by the Iran war.

Evening Standard

Quarter of a million people could lose their jobs by 2027 as UK ‘flirts with recession’

The job market will endure its ‘biggest hit since the pandemic’

The Independent UK

Dave Ramsey Says You Need To Do These 3 Things During a Recession

Money expert Dave Ramsey shares three key moves he says can help households stay afloat and protect their finances during a recession.

GOBankingRates

Wall Street seems to have decided the recession risk is over. Can the Australian market do the same?

Experts say US market ‘may have run ahead of itself’ while ASX 200’s more modest recovery is due in part to Australia’s reliance on fuel imports

The Guardian - AU

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Ken Griffin Warns Global Recession 'Inevitable' If Strait Of Hormuz Stays Shut: Flags 'Mistake' In Iran Strategy

Citadel Advisors founder Kenneth Griffin believes the world will face a recession if the Strait of Hormuz remains shut for the remainder of this year.

International Business Times UK

Xi Jinping says the world order is ‘crumbling into disarray.’ Larry Fink and the IMF are worried about a global recession

The Iran war, trade chaos, and a shifting geopolitical landscape are converging into what could be the defining economic moment of the decade.

Fortune

As recession looms, Donald Trump desperately needs a deal

THE INDEPENDENT VIEW: Editorial: As red warning lights flash on the world’s economy, the man who claims to be the master of the art of dealmaking has never needed a win more

The Independent UK

Bulletin PM briefing: Trump tells Starmer ‘drill, baby, drill’ and global recession fears

Here are five of the biggest stories of the day in case you have missed them

The Independent UK

Reeves hits out at Trump over Iran war strategy with recession a real possibility

IN FULL

The Independent UK

Chancellor slams Trump’s Iran war ‘folly’ as threat of recession looms

Rachel Reeves says she is ‘very frustrated and angry’ at America’s actions in the Middle East

The Independent UK

Iran war escalation could trigger global recession, IMF warns

Growth forecasts cut for US and global economy, while UK suffers sharpest downgrade in G7

The Guardian - UK

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news in one place.

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The Independent UK

How war in Iran could push the world into a global recession

IN FULL

Evening Standard

UK economic growth forecasts slashed as IMF says Iran war risks global recession

The IMF laid out its first set of forecasts since the global economy was rocked by the conflict between US-Israeli and Iranian forces.

The Guardian - AU

IMF warns ‘unprecedented’ energy crisis could trigger global recession as Australia prepares for Washington talks

As treasurer Jim Chalmers weighs ‘extreme uncertainty’, one economic scenario sees global growth plunging to just 2% in 2026

The Independent UK

Trump’s Iran war could trigger global recession, IMF warns

UK growth slashed as worldwide economy could be thrown ‘off course’, with the risk of an energy crisis ‘on an unprecedented scale’

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Fortune

‘Good for Russia, good for China, bad for America’: How the Iran war is reshaping global economies and power

Stagflation, unemployment, recession: The Iran war is rewriting the global economy, and the damage may be permanent.

The Conversation

Is Australia at risk of a recession? Here’s what the data actually shows

Talk of a recession in Australia has picked up in recent weeks. Rising fuel prices, a sharp fall in consumer confidence, and signs of softer spending have all added to concerns the economy may be losing momentum.

International Business Times UK

Mark Cuban's Recession-Proof Advice To Help You Navigate Economic Uncertainty

Mark Cuban believes that you must build cash reserves for the present before retirement and look for a job that fits your interests to stay better prepared for a recession.

Barchart

The Death of the Bear Market: Why Classic Recessions Are a Thing of the Past and Inflation Is the New Norm

Is the bear market officially dead? Dive into a deep analysis of the post-2008 financial paradigm, where inflation serves as a permanent insurance premium for social stability. Learn how the inertia of the M2 money supply creates an inescapable trap for regulators and why buying the dip has become the…

The Guardian - AU

Is Australia headed for a recession? I hope not - but the RBA should be more worried

In backing down on his threats to destroy Iranian civilisation, Donald Trump has lessened concerns of a recession in Australia – at least for now

The Independent UK

Middle East conflict fuels UK services sector slowdown and recession fears

IN FULL

Fortune

Top economist Mark Zandi says the indicator that has called every recession since WWII just signaled we're already in one

The Vicious Cycle Index is a recession indicator that takes labor force participation changes into consideration. The top economist at Moody’s Analytics said it’s flashing red.

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