The Harvard economist behind the Education Scorecard says the ‘Learning Recession’ is more than a COVID problem—it’s at least a decade old

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When the National Assessment of Educational Progress published its 2022 report, the conclusion seemed clear: COVID-19 had devastated American students. Test scores in reading had dropped five points for nine-year-olds between 2020 and 2022—the largest single decline since 1990. Math scores fell seven points over the same period, another historic drop. The pandemic, most agreed, had triggered a “learning recession.”

But a sweeping new education report suggests the real story started much earlier—and COVID may have been more accelerant than cause.