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The Latest Breaking News from Recession

Goldman raises recession odds to 30% on higher inflation, lower GDP outlook as oil prices surge

Goldman said it expected six weeks of Hormuz disruption, with Brent crude averaging $105 per barrel in March and $115 in April before retreating to $80.

Fortune

It is impossible for Britain to stay completely out of the war in the Middle East

THE INDEPENDENT VIEW: Editorial: The danger of a world economic crisis is one reason Trump was so unwise to launch this war in the first place, and it is why the conflict should be brought to an end as quickly as possible, but as long as the conflict lasts, the…

The Independent UK

I Asked ChatGPT What the US Can Do To Stop a Recession — The Answer Shocked Me

ChatGPT broke down six ways the U.S. can prevent or shorten recessions, from Fed policy and fiscal support to protecting jobs and managing credit markets.

GOBankingRates

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The Middle East is one of the world’s fastest growing luxury markets—and the war in Iran may cut its sales in half, analysts say

Luxury brands such as Dior and Gucci each get 20% of their sales from the region, which grew about 6% in 2025.

Fortune

Why $138 is the key mark for oil prices and what it means for the future of the US economy

Analysts are keeping a close eye on the developments in the Middle East amid President Donald Trump’s war on Iran, and are paying particular attention to oil prices

The Independent UK

I Asked ChatGPT Which States Are Ready To Face a Recession — The Answer Surprised Me

ChatGPT analyzed recession readiness by state, ranking North Dakota first while Colorado and Louisiana landed near the bottom due to weak fiscal reserves.

GOBankingRates

Goldman Sachs Just Issued a New Warning on the U.S. Economy — And It’s Not Just About Oil

The leading investment bank has cut its growth forecast and raised the probability of recession. That means some tough decisions ahead for the Federal Reserve.

Barchart

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BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warns AI is creating a ‘crisis’ for Gen Z workers: the class of 2026 could face the highest unemployment in years—even without a recession

New college graduates hoping for a white-collar career shouldn’t hold their breath, BlackRock boss Larry Fink warns: “AI is going to disrupt many of those types of jobs.”

Fortune

Elon Musk Backs Warren Buffett's 5-Minute Plan to Fix US National Debt Nearing $40T

Elon Musk has endorsed Warren Buffett's radical '5-minute' proposal to eliminate the US deficit as the national debt hits a record $39 trillion (£30.7 trillion) amid 2026 recession fears.

International Business Times UK

Economists are loathe to mention recessions, but odds just hit 49% for the next 12 months according to Moody’s top economist

"If oil prices remain elevated for much longer (weeks and not months), a recession will be difficult to avoid," Zandi said.

Fortune

Moody's says a US recession is increasingly 'hard to avoid' amid Iran war

Moody’s Analytics model forecasts a 49% chance of a US recession in the next 12 months, the closest probability in years.

Euronews

PM calls national cabinet meeting over fuel crisis – as it happened

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The Guardian - AU

Stocks haven't hit bottom yet, says the analyst who called a 'rolling recession' when everyone else saw a boom

Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson says 50% of Russell 3000 stocks are already down 20% — and the selloff panicking investors this week started six months ago.

Fortune

Treasurer warns of major economic damage from Iran war

Fresh modelling shows oil price shocks and soaring prices for other commodities will have a lasting impact on Australia's economy.

AAP

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International Business Times UK

Tesla Defies Recession Fears with AI Chip Terafab Plan as Cybercab Setback Tests Resilience

Tesla is making strategic moves with its AI chip production and a $4.3 billion battery deal with LG Energy Solution, aiming for greater control over its supply chain.

Barchart

Is Dollar-Tree Stock a Recession-Proof Winner or a Ticking Time Bomb?

Dollar Tree stock gains on better-than-expected Q4 earnings. Guggenheim analysts explain why DLTR shares are worth owning in 2026.

The Guardian - AU

Australian households fear double whammy of rate hikes and higher petrol prices will lead to recession

Borrowers face losing hundreds of dollars a month in higher repayments and rising pump rices will add to the pain, economists warn

International Business Times UK

Ray Dalio Says US Will Lose The War With Iran if It Fails to Break the Strait of Hormuz Blockade

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio warns that the United States risks an 'empire-ending' defeat and the collapse of the petrodollar if it fails to break Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

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Fortune

Trump's 'Art of the Deal' can't reopen the Strait of Hormuz — and it's threatening a recession

For four decades, Trump bent the rules, walked away from debts, and rewrote agreements midstream. The Strait of Hormuz defies the Art of the Deal.

Axios

The Iran war is a new test of America's economic superpower

The economy's scale, diversity and adaptability have allowed it to continue chugging along whenever crises arise.

Fortune

Goldman just raised recession odds to 25%. Here's what Trump's war economy is doing to jobs

Payrolls shed 92,000 jobs in February, openings keep falling, and Goldman says the breakeven rate isn't being met. The labor market is sending a warning.

Fortune

Recession and stagflation risks are rising due to Iran conflict, as economist warns it’s ‘getting harder to argue disruption will be temporary’

"Clearly, the longer that oil remains at these levels, expectations of a sustained shock will only grow," Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid said.

GOBankingRates

I Asked ChatGPT How the Middle Class Should Prepare for a Possible 2026 Recession: 7 Top Tips

Using ChatGPT, this breaks down seven practical tips to help middle‑class families prepare for a possible 2026 recession, from savings to job security.

The Conversation

Iran oil shock: the EU has very few options to limit the war’s economic impact – and prevent a recession

After the US and Israel began their military strikes on Iran on February 28, oil and gas markets were plunged into chaos and energy prices shot up. As of today, Brent Crude Oil prices are 20% higher than in late February. They went from around $70 a barrel in late…

Axios

The Iran war's economic blowback is getting real

As oil prices surge, recession odds nearly doubled this month.

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