The Latest Breaking News from Poll Bludger

Labor's lead drops in Resolve and Essential polls, but they are still far ahead

A federal Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted February 15-19 from a sample of 1,604, gave Labor 40% of the primary vote (down two since January), the Coalition 31% (up two), the Greens 10% (down one), One Nation 5% (down one), the UAP 1% (down one), independents 9% (up one)…

The Conversation · Feb 21, 2023

Albanese's Newspoll ratings drop but Labor maintains big lead

A federal Newspoll, conducted February 1-4 from a sample of 1,512, gave Labor a 55-45 lead, unchanged on the previous Newspoll in early December. Primary votes were 38% Labor (down one), 34% Coalition (down one), 11% Greens (steady), 6% One Nation (steady) and 11% for all Others (up two).

The Conversation · Feb 5, 2023

Two months before NSW election, a new poll gives Labor a big lead

A new poll has given Labor a sizeable 56% to 44% two-party preferred lead over the Coalition, two months ahead of the New South Wales state election on March 25.

The Conversation · Jan 23, 2023

Labor retains large lead in Victorian Resolve poll four weeks from election; also leads in NSW

The Victorian state election will be held in four weeks, on November 26. A Resolve poll for The Age, conducted October 20-24 from a sample of “more than 800”, gave Labor a 59-41 lead over the Coalition.

The Conversation · Oct 28, 2022

Labor seizes big lead in two New South Wales polls six months before election

The New South Wales state election will be held in six months, in March 2023. A Newspoll, conducted September 19-22 from a sample of 1,006, gave Labor a 54-46 lead (it was 52.0-48.0 to the Coalition at the March 2019 election). Primary votes were 40% Labor (33.3% at the last…

The Conversation · Sep 27, 2022

Labor extends big lead in Newspoll, but Morgan is much better for Coalition

This week’s Newspoll is the second since the May federal election, after the first appeared five weeks ago. Labor led by 57-43, a one point gain for Labor. Primary votes were 37% Labor (steady), 31% Coalition (down two), 13% Greens (up one), 7% One Nation (up one), 2% UAP (steady)…

The Conversation · Sep 6, 2022

Victorian Newspoll gives Labor big lead three months before election

The Victorian election will be held in three months, on November 26. A Victorian state Newspoll, conducted August 22-25 from a sample of 1,027, gave Labor a 56-44 lead (57.3-42.7 at the 2018 election). Primary votes were 41% Labor (42.9% at election), 36% Coalition (35.2%), 13% Greens (10.7%) and 10%…

The Conversation · Aug 29, 2022

First Newspoll since election gives Albanese 'honeymoon' ratings; Australia's poor success rate at referendums

The first Newspoll since the May federal election, conducted July 27-30 from a sample of 1,508, gave Labor a 56-44 lead (52.1-47.9 to Labor at the election). Primary votes were 37% Labor (32.6% at election), 33% Coalition (35.7%), 12% Greens (12.2%), 6% One Nation (5.0%), 2% UAP (4.1%) and 10%…

The Conversation · Aug 1, 2022

Census data shows poorest seats voted Coalition; byelections or polls from four states

The Poll Bludger covered findings from the 2021 Census on June 30. The most striking finding was that the Coalition won the ten seats with the lowest household income at the federal election. These seats are all in regional Australia.

The Conversation · Jul 11, 2022

More Senate results: Hanson wins easily, but Labor still on track for a friendly Senate

Buttons have now been pressed to electronically distribute preferences for the May 21 federal election in the Senate for South Australia, Tasmania and Queensland. I discussed the ACT and NT results that elected David Pocock to the Senate on Tuesday.

The Conversation · Jun 17, 2022