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The Conversation
Politics
Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

Labor's lead drops in Resolve and Essential polls, but they are still far ahead

Mick Tsikas/AAP

A federal Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted February 15-19 from a sample of 1,604, gave Labor 40% of the primary vote (down two since January), the Coalition 31% (up two), the Greens 10% (down one), One Nation 5% (down one), the UAP 1% (down one), independents 9% (up one) and others 2% (steady). Two points were lost to rounding.

Resolve does not give a two party estimate until close to elections, but applying 2022 election preference flows to these primary votes gives Labor a 58-42 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since January.

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