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Politics
Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

Labor retains large lead in Victorian Resolve poll four weeks from election; also leads in NSW

David Crosling/AAP

The Victorian state election will be held in four weeks, on November 26. A Resolve poll for The Age, conducted October 20-24 from a sample of “more than 800”, gave Labor a 59-41 lead over the Coalition.

Resolve does not give a two-party estimate until close to elections, so this is the first Victorian Resolve poll with a two-party estimate. Analyst Kevin Bonham estimated Labor would lead by 58-42 from the primary votes, a three-point gain for the Coalition since September.

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