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The Latest Breaking News from P Whiteley

Who will win in Gorton and Denton? What the results of every byelection since 2010 tell us

The fight is on for the Gorton and Denton byelection on February 26. It is a three-way contest between Labour, Reform and the Greens. According to Electoral Calculus, a site which runs regular MRP (multi-level regression post stratification) surveys, Reform will win with 32% of the vote, the Greens will…

The Conversation · Feb 20

Data suggests Labour would be making a mistake if it ousted Keir Starmer after May elections

British electoral politics in the 1980s were dominated by Margaret Thatcher, the prime minister for the whole of that decade. Similarly, Tony Blair dominated elections when he was in Downing Street from 1997 to 2007. In sharp contrast, the decade from 2015 to 2025 saw no fewer than six prime…

The Conversation · Jan 15

What the year in polls tells us about Reform’s growth – and Labour and Tory losses

In the year and a half since Labour won a landslide in the 2024 general election, over 400 polls have been published. Combined, these polls tell a story of a government and its traditional opposition party losing support and fringe parties gaining ground. The big question this poses is whether…

The Conversation · Dec 19, 2025

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Why did the polls get the Caerphilly byelection wrong? They ignored the fact Reform is an English nationalist party

The results of the Caerphilly Senedd byelection held on October 23 were certainly a shock to Labour and to the Conservatives, but they also cast doubt on the reliability of polling as well. It had for some time appeared that Reform was in the running to win the seat but…

The Conversation · Oct 30, 2025

Reform and Green party members the most ideologically removed from the average voter

Against the backdrop of a fragmenting political system, the 2025 party conference season in the UK has been an unusual one. The Greens and Reform, having secured strong results in the 2024 election, enjoyed an unprecedented level of interest in their events. Members were interviewed in the media and party…

The Conversation · Oct 7, 2025

MRP poll puts Reform ahead of Labour and the Tories – here’s why the finding should be treated with caution

Thinktank More in Common recently published an MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) poll which appears to show that if there was a general election in the near future, Reform would win 180 seats. According to the analysis, Labour and the Conservatives would win 165 seats each and the Liberal Democrats…

The Conversation · Apr 25, 2025

Two charts that explain why Reform isn’t being dented by its scandals

The spat between Nigel Farage, the leader of the Reform party, and Rupert Lowe, the MP for Great Yarmouth, burst into the open when Lowe was suspended from the party. The allegation was that he had threatened violence to the party leadership, which he denies. The matter is currently being…

The Conversation · Mar 14, 2025

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Could trusting each other more unlock economic growth?

Trust in Britain’s institutions is in bad shape, according to recent data from the European Social Survey.

The Conversation · Dec 20, 2024

Why the Tories may be wasting their time trying to compete with Reform

The spectre of the Reform party has been haunting the Tories since the general election. There is a general consensus that Reform split the vote on the right of the ideological spectrum, and this significantly contributed to the Tory defeat.

The Conversation · Oct 18, 2024

Why Labour should worry this election will be more like 2001 than 1997

What if many people just don’t bother voting in this election? The polls may suggest a landslide victory for Labour, but the party is worried about the millions of people who still say they are undecided or may think a Labour victory is so certain they don’t need to vote.…

The Conversation · Jun 28, 2024

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