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The Latest Breaking News from Chatham House

We can’t know if Vladimir Putin will accept a ceasefire in Ukraine. But this is what he’ll be thinking

Key factors will drive the Kremlin’s decision. Can Russia fight on and for what? Or is there more benefit in allying with Donald Trump, asks Orysia Lutsevych of Chatham House

The Guardian - UK

Stimulate debate on contentious topics, expert urges English universities

Government’s lead on academic freedom cautions of significant danger to integrity if expression is restricted

The Guardian - UK

Military must modernise to ‘earn’ post-war prosperity once again, says minister

The armed forces minister said increasing defence spending to 2.5% was the start of a much bigger process of building a modern military.

Evening Standard

From analysis to the latest developments in health,
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New Zealand’s high commissioner to the UK loses job after Trump comments

Phil Goff questioned Donald Trump’s grasp of history at a Chatham House event in London, prompting the foreign minister to say his position is ‘untenable’

The Guardian - AU

Europe is running out of hope Trump is still open to persuasion over Ukraine

Where the US president sees a convivial leader an ocean away, Europeans see a tyrant on its borders breaking all agreements

The Guardian - UK

Trump’s Ukraine policy shift: How are European leaders planning to respond?

European leaders are scrambling for responses after Trump reached out to Putin to end the war in Ukraine.

Al Jazeera

UK should be cautious after change in US policy over Ukraine, think tank says

US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said European nations need to spend 5% of GDP on defence and would be responsible for peacekeeping in Ukraine.

Evening Standard

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Why Trump’s change of heart on TikTok? This is about self-interest, not security

The man who once declared TikTok a ‘national emergency’ has detected a very different mood among young Americans, says Emily Taylor of the International Security Programme, Chatham House

The Guardian - UK

‘A watershed moment’: how will Labour play Trump 2.0?

Starmer open to second state visit for Donald Trump, amid worries about tariffs and recent setbacks to political relationship

The Guardian - UK

UK should sign climate change co-operation agreement with China, says think tank

Chatham House said a formal deal would enable ‘bolder and more confident engagement’ by the UK in China ‘and vice versa’.

The Independent UK

Russia intensifies assaults on Ukraine ahead of Trump’s inauguration

Putin’s army is stepping up attacks in an apparent bid to strengthen Trump’s argument for cutting aid to Kyiv.

Al Jazeera

What does fall of Assad in Syria mean for the Middle East and the West?

How will the fall of the Assad regime reshape geopolitical dynamics worldwide?

The Independent UK

Israel Assuming 'Worst-case Scenario' With Syria Bombing: Analysts

Israel's bombing of Syrian military assets and its entry into the UN-patrolled buffer zone on the Golan Heights show it fears the worst from the end of the Assad clan's rule, analysts told AFP. "The Israeli government... is operating on a worst-case scenario with little to no nuance," said Yossi…

International Business Times

The ceasefire in Lebanon doesn’t ensure a lasting victory for Israel, but does signal a strategic setback for Iran

Hezbollah is still armed and has the potential to attack Israel. But more significantly it has in effect abandoned Hamas, says Bilal Saab of Chatham House

The Guardian - UK

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The Independent UK

What could a second Trump presidency mean for foreign affairs?

Mr Trump has vowed to end wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Al Jazeera

What does Trump 2.0 mean for US foreign policy?

Experts say Trump is likely to harden approach to Ukraine and China, and infuse more unpredictability in Middle East.

The Guardian - UK

China building ‘counter-stealth’ radar on disputed South China Sea reef, satellite pictures suggest

Upgraded Triton Island outpost in the Paracel archipelago expands China’s surveillance capabilities in the region

The Guardian - UK

Hezbollah stands at a crossroads – its next steps will determine Lebanon’s fate

Like Netanyahu, the militant group has chosen to ignore basic truths, and prioritised its own aims over the nation it claims to defend, says Bilal Saab of Chatham House

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France 24

US is senior partner in relationship but Israel driving conversation, analyst says

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is thought to be weighing up a range of options, following his pledge to come down hard on Iran. FRANCE 24's Sharon Gaffney speaks to Bilal Y. Saab, Head of the US-Middle East practice and an associate fellow at Chatham House. He says that the…

Al Jazeera

Why are Storm Shadow missiles a new flashpoint between Putin and the West?

Could lifting of restrictions on use of long-range missiles spell escalation of hostilities between Russia and the West?

The Guardian - UK

Many fear Israel and Hezbollah are heading for all-out war – but here’s why that’s far from inevitable

Despite escalations, a full-blown conflict would be bad for both. But all this brinkmanship is diverting attention from Palestine, says Lina Khatib of Chatham House

The Guardian - UK

The Kursk attack has humiliated Putin – and changed the narrative over how the war is fought

This is the first time Russian territory has been occupied since the second world war. It disproves the notion Kyiv should cede territory to achieve peace, says Orysia Lutsevych of Chatham House

The Independent UK

Ukraine’s surprise cross-border incursion seen as a tactical reply to Russia's grinding gains

Russia’s army has in recent months made an unrelenting effort to punch through Ukrainian defenses at selected points along the front line in eastern Ukraine

France 24

Gaza, Ukraine and China: How Biden can still move the dial on foreign policy

US President Joe Biden’s decision to drop out of the presidential race gives him nearly six months left in office with an array of foreign policy challenges on the table. How will Biden continue to shape Washington’s stance towards Ukraine, China and the Israel-Hamas war? FRANCE 24 speaks with Dr…

Al Jazeera

As Ukraine war rages, Russia activates sabotage plans in Europe: Experts

Russia is accused of putting into effect psychological, economic and military operations planned by the USSR.

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