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The Latest Breaking News from Capital Economics

We're about to find out who's really paying for tariffs

Economists at Goldman Sachs expect companies will pass on 70% of tariff costs to consumers via higher prices.

Fortune

The TACO trade is backfiring on Wall Street as Trump seizes on stock market highs to charge ahead with tariffs

"Markets appear to believe that Trump will again back down. We are not so sure."

Fortune

The housing market is flashing warning signs about high mortgage rates and Gen Z and millennial first-time buyers, Capital Economics says

Don't expect mortgage rates to drop anytime soon, the London-based research firm says.

Fortune

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Is your city a winner or loser in the return-to-office race? Capital Economics breaks it down

The London-based research firm also issued a forecast through 2029, finding three cities rising above the rest.

Fortune

Stocks sink after Trump announces steep tariffs Japan, Korea and 5 other countries

Trump also extended the pause on tariffs to Aug. 1.

Fortune

Wall Street was expecting a TACO Tuesday. But Dow futures fall 250 points after Trump says he will set tariffs as high as 70%

Trump said that about “10 or 12” tariff letters would go out Friday, with additional letters coming “over the next few days.”

Fortune

Falling home prices are raising the risk of a deeper correction as the housing market cracks under high mortgage rates

The latest Case-Shiller home price report showed a 0.3% monthly fall in the 20-city index in April, steeper than March's downwardly revised 0.2% dip.

Fortune

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Israel’s attacks on Iran may keep Fed rate cuts on hold, just as inflation was looking better

The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 6.9 basis points on Friday to $4.426, reversing a dip in the immediate aftermath of the attacks.

Fortune

US consumer sentiment tumbles as trade war fears grow

Expectations of rising unemployment hit the highest level since 2009.

Al Jazeera

The Ukraine mineral deal relies on 50-year-old Soviet-era maps and infrastructure that no longer exists, report says

Reports indicate that a mineral mining agreement between the U.S. and Ukraine could be signed this week.

Fortune

Strong wage growth gives Bank of England interest rate dilemma

Quick cuts unlikely because persistently high pay rises will probably be deemed inflationary

The Guardian - UK

What does Trump really want from Canada and Mexico? It may come down to oil security and bringing both countries 'under the US's thumb'

"This means both a reliable, unimpeded flow of oil and natural resources from Canada and a safer Mexico. And that means both countries under the US’s thumb."

Fortune

China Holds Out Hope Last-minute Deal Can Avert US Trade War

China's new tariffs on US imports like oil, coal and cars are relatively modest in scale, suggesting that Beijing is hoping for a last-minute deal but also giving them the option to inflict more pain if needed, analysts say.

International Business Times

What Would Trump Tariffs Mean For Key Trade Partner Mexico?

US President Donald Trump has threatened to slap a 25-percent tariff on Mexican goods on February 1, a move that analysts say would deal a heavy blow to Latin America's second-largest economy.

International Business Times

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The Guardian - UK

FTSE 100 share index records biggest weekly loss in a year, as US shutdown fears hit markets – as it happened

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news

The Independent UK

Why it’s unfair to compare the current market movement to catastrophic Truss mini-Budget

ANALYSIS : Ignore the comparisons, writes Howard Mustoe – any suggestions that market concerns over Rachel Reeves’s Budget bear any similarity to the chaos that followed Liz Truss’s economic disaster are wide of the mark

International Business Times

Eurozone Economy Grows Faster Than Expected

The eurozone economy grew more than expected in the third quarter, official data showed Wednesday, thanks to Germany which defied expectations and dodged a recession.

Fortune

Fortune 500 Europe: How Germany is flirting with long-term irrelevance

Everything that could go wrong has gone wrong for Germany’s economy. How can it turn things around?

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The Independent UK

China’s exports slow sharply in September, adding to worries over the economy

China’s exports slowed sharply in September as global demand weakened, adding to worries over how to recharge growth in the world's second-largest economy

Fortune

Andreessen Horowitz shutters its ‘Wall Street South’ office after 2 years because nobody was showing up

Miami is a winner in the office space slump, but its triumph wasn’t enough to stop Andreessen Horowitz from ditching its office in the city.

Fortune

Interest rate cuts are now all but guaranteed after dovish Fed meeting, experts say

“The Fed minutes removed all doubt about a September rate cut,” said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group.

Fortune

The latest drop in mortgage rates isn’t enough to bring sellers and buyers off the sidelines

“It seems that borrowing costs would have to fall below 5% to see a full recovery in home buying,” a Capital Economics economist wrote.

Fortune

In the office space slump, Miami is winning

Big tech and billionaires are pushing people back to the office in Miami.

Fortune

Despite the stock crash, the AI-fueled bubble will soon regain momentum, economist says

Capital Economics said a recession is unlikely and growth will even reaccelerate after a soft patch in the second half of this year.

Fortune

Sunbelt boomtowns are cooling off, but the sun-soaked region will reclaim its hot status

More than 2 million single-family homes have been built in the South since January 2021, more than four times the number completed in the Northeast, according to a Capital Economics economist.

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