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The Latest Breaking News from Capital Economics

It’s ‘extremely likely’ we’ve seen mortgage rates peak, Capital Economics says, and mortgage demand is starting to recover

Capital Economics projects 7% mortgage rates in the coming weeks.

Fortune

Ed Yardeni says China’s aging population could make it ‘the world’s largest nursing home’—and the resulting economic depression may help the U.S.

“China’s economy is in a property-led and fertility-led depression,” Yardeni wrote, adding that this “benefits countries that import Chinese goods at depressed prices.”

Fortune

Autumn statement: where might Jeremy Hunt spend his windfall?

The chancellor is estimated to have billions to play with and has a range of options from lowering income tax to cutting inheritance tax

The Guardian - UK

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Housing math just isn’t mathing, a Fed president says, ripping into NIMBYism and homes that are ‘increasingly unattainable for too many workers'

Tom Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, sees math that doesn't add up for too many—and he thinks "NIMBYism is real."

Fortune

The mortgage rate shock hitting the housing market has years left to run, Capital Economics says

In fact, we may never see pandemic-era mortgage rates again, other experts say.

Fortune

If you own an apartment in Seattle, your value could crater by over 30%, Capital Economics says. But renters could finally catch a break

West coast markets will see "the greatest pain," the research firm found, and Seattle apartment vacancies will see "a huge increase," doubling by 2025.

Fortune

UK retail sector may be in recession before key Christmas sales season

Mild weather in September and cost of living crisis lead to reduction in spending

The Guardian - UK

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US inflation sticks at 3.7%; UK recession fears linger despite August growth; Ikea to cut prices – as it happened

UK services sector lifts economy back to growth in August, but BoE policymaker Swati Dhingra warns that economy is flatlining

The Guardian - UK

Four charged with fraud over Patisserie Valerie collapse; UK GDP shrinks 0.5% in July – as it happened

All three main sectors of the economy in decline after strikes by doctors, radiographers and teachers, while construction and retail hit by wet weather

The Guardian - UK

BRICS just invited 6 nations including Saudi Arabia and Iran to join—here's why it increases the prospect of dollar replacement

The idea of creating a BRICS common currency to rival the dollar has long been on the agenda of the emerging-market nations in the bloc.

Fortune

San Francisco's office sector is at the epicenter of the crash—this research firm predicts values there will fall at least 40% by 2025

Capital Economics forecasts that San Francisco office values will drop 40%, at the very least, in the next couple of years.

Fortune

China's July exports tumble by double digits, adding to pressure to shore up flagging economy

China's exports tumbled by double digits in July, adding to pressure on the ruling Communist Party to reverse an economic slump

The Independent UK

When will interest rates fall? Experts warn of ‘more pain to swallow’ after latest hike

Mortgage rates could remain elevated ‘indefinitely’, analyst says

The Independent UK

Skepticism prevails as Chinese leaders promise to back private businesses to spur slowing economy

Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s government is promising to drag the economy out of a crisis of confidence aggravated by tensions with Washington, wilting exports, job losses and anxiety among foreign companies about an expanded anti-spying law

The Independent UK

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Fortune

Commercial real estate may not recover until 2040

Capital Economics's Kiran Raichura predicts that office values will sink by 35% in the next three years, and the sector might not recover until 2040.

Fortune

Property economist predicts 35% fall in office values by end of 2025, anticipates over 17-year recovery: 'We definitely think the office sector is crashing'

“The realization that the market needs to reprice substantially has driven us to make a big downgrade in our forecast,” says Capital Economics' Kiran Raichura.

The Guardian - UK

Eurozone inflation drops; UK recession fears linger; Apple hits $3trn valuation – as it happened

Eurozone price pressures have eased, although core inflation has risen, as economists warn UK recession risk has not vanished

Fortune

Morgan Stanley says commercial real estate will crash harder than during the Great Financial Crisis. Here’s how 5 other top institutions see it playing out

There’s one thing they can all agree on: Office properties are in trouble.

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news in one place.

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Fortune

Office owners have an ‘arduous’ road ahead, Capital Economics says, forecasting that office values are unlikely to recover by 2040

The research firm’s top property economist likens the decline in office demand to what malls have experienced over the last six years—and sees a similar outcome.

Fortune

Capital Economics: Pause in home price declines to 'prove temporary''

Capital Economics just put out a new report titled “Pause in house price declines to prove temporary.”

The Guardian - UK

UK growth forecast upgraded by IMF; Bank of England governor says ‘big lessons to learn’ after inflation shock – as it happened

New IMF report shows “a big upgrade to the UK’s growth forecast” says Jeremy Hunt, with UK expected to grow by 0.4% this year not shrink by 0.3%

The Guardian - UK

How war in Taiwan could mean the wheels come off the UK economy

Microchips are an issue, of course, but China also makes the alloy wheels our cars mostly roll on. And what about TikTok?

Fortune

Will Credit Suisse be the next banking domino to fall?

After Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse, could one of Europe’s biggest (and most embattled) banks spark an even bigger crisis?

AFP

Turkey's inflation slows for third month ahead of election

Istanbul (AFP) - Turkey's inflation rate slowed for a third successive month in January, official data showed Friday, after a record that threw the economy into chaos and imperilled President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's chances in May 14 polls.

Fortune

The free-fall in housing market activity just concluded, says Capital Economics

U.S. home prices will continue to fall in 2023 even as home sales bottom out, says Capital Economics.

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