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The Latest Breaking News from Carsten Brzeski

'Then the euro will slide': Experts warn of prolonged war with Iran

Trump has given the Iran war four weeks. But if the conflict drags on, economists warn the euro could slide — and prominent economist Daniel Stelter goes further, predicting a full recession.

Euronews

EU countries prepare for ECB race as Lagarde eyes early exit

Following reports on Wednesday that Christine Lagarde could step down as ECB President before her mandate ends, some EU countries have begun sounding out potential successors.

Euronews

UK sugar tax to be extended to more soft drinks and milkshakes; markets rally ahead of the budget – as it happened

Government sets out plans to lower the threshold within the Soft Drinks Industry Levy to 4.5g per 100ml, down from 5g

The Guardian - UK

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German trade surplus shrinks to 11-month low as imports surge

Germany’s trade surplus fell to an 11-month low in September 2025 as imports surged 3.1%. Exports to the US rebounded but remain down year-on-year.

Euronews

Independence Of Central Banks Tested By Trump Attacks On US Fed

For months, US President Donald Trump has been piling pressure on the Federal Reserve over delayed cuts to interest rates, casting the institution's independence into doubt.

International Business Times

Inflation in France, Spain and Italy was lower than expected in August, data shows

Inflation remained subdued in three of the four biggest economies in the European Union, fuelling hopes that the European Central Bank will not see the necessity to change the key interest rates in September.

Euronews

Pressure On Merz As Trump Tariffs Hit German Economy

Germany's economy shrank more than expected in the second quarter as US tariffs battered exports, official data showed Friday, ramping up pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz to turn Europe's top economy around.

International Business Times

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Germany Factory Output Lowest Since Pandemic In 2020

German industrial production slumped in June to its lowest level since the pandemic in 2020, data showed Thursday, underlining the fragility of Europe's top economy even before US President Donald Trump's new tariffs kicked in.

International Business Times

US-EU trade deal wards off tariff escalation but threatens growth

The 15% rate removes Trump's threat of a 30% tariff. But it effectively raises the tariff on EU goods from 1.2% last year to 17%.

Euronews

US-EU trade deal wards off further escalation but will raise costs for companies, consumers

U.S. President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen have announced a sweeping trade deal

The Independent UK

ECB Expected To Hold Rates As More Trump Tariffs Loom

The European Central Bank looks set to keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday while the introduction of higher US tariffs threatened by US President Donald Trump hangs in the balance.

International Business Times

ECB Expected To Hold Rates As Trump Tariff Uncertainty Lingers

The European Central Bank is set to hold interest rates for the first time in almost a year when policymakers meet this week, despite concerns over the potential impact of higher US tariffs on the eurozone economy.

International Business Times

Production and exports fall in Germany as pre-tariff rush wears off

US tariff concerns are darkening Germany’s outlook while the economy is already weak, hindering hopes of a recovery.

Euronews

Germany sees a jump in unemployment as manufacturing weakness drags on

The number of unemployed people in Germany is nearing the 3 million threshold for the first time in a decade.

Euronews

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The Independent UK

The US and EU are in a showdown over trade. What does Trump want and what can Europe offer?

European and US officials are wrestling over a trade deal

Euronews

‘Surprisingly good March’ helps German GDP exceed expectations

The German economy, Europe's biggest, grew by 0.4% in the first quarter thanks to stronger-than-expected exports and manufacturing.

The Independent UK

Germany's economy grew by 0.4% in the 1st quarter. That's double the initial estimate

The German economy, Europe’s biggest, grew by 0.4% in the first quarter thanks to stronger-than-expected exports and manufacturing

Euronews

Why economists believe the ECB will keep on cutting interest rates

Economists predict that the ECB will continue its rate-cutting cycle as global trade tensions rise and eurozone growth slows. Markets expect up to 75 basis points of easing by September, pushing the deposit rate down to 1.5%.

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International Business Times

ECB Ready To Cut Rates Again As Trump Tariffs Shake Eurozone

European Central Bank policymakers look increasingly likely to cut interest rates again on Thursday, with US President Donald Trump's stop-start tariff announcements sowing concern in the eurozone.

Euronews

Economists slash eurozone growth forecasts as US tariffs shake outlook

Economists are slashing eurozone growth forecasts after Trump’s 20% tariffs on EU exports. Weaker trade, confidence, and investment now dominate outlooks, boosting expectations for ECB rate cuts, with April seen as likely. Inflation risks take a back seat for now.

Al Jazeera

Debt brake: How this fiscal rule could shape Germany’s election

This mechanism, which has been blamed for a lack of investment, has emerged as an important election issue.

The Guardian - UK

Willingness to ease off ‘debt brake’ may decide the German election

Rule dating from 2009 that limits borrowing looks vulnerable as main political parties promise to revive stalled economy

The Guardian - UK

European Central Bank cuts interest rates after eurozone growth stalls

Reduction by quarter of a point to 2.75% aims to stimulate economy, which stagnated in last quarter of 2024

The Independent UK

European Central Bank likely to cut rates while weighing US trade concerns and France's chaos

The European Central Bank is releasing its its decision on interest rates and a rate cut is a foregone conclusion

International Business Times

German Big Business Calls For Early Vote, Economic Vision

German big business groups demanded almost in unison Thursday that embattled Chancellor Olaf Scholz call elections soon to restore political stability in Europe's stuttering top economy.

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