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The Latest Breaking News from Capital Economics

The U.S. has 'escalation dominance' in a debt war as Europe would face a violent market crash if it dumps Treasuries

Europe accounts for about a third of U.S. government bonds held overseas, or roughly 10% of the overall Treasury market.

Fortune

As a property slump drags on, China's economy looks more resilient than it feels

By some measures, China's economy is looking resilient, with strong exports and breakthroughs in artificial intelligence

The Independent UK

‘We’ve gotten out of whack’ by fixating so much on Fed rates, but the loss of its independence will be punished, BofA CEO Brian Moynihan says

“There’s too much fascination with the Fed,” Moynihan said.

Fortune

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Trump and his new handpicked Fed chair—whoever it will be—are going to clash ‘almost immediately,’ economists predict

Capital Economics expects the Fed to cut rates by just 25 basis points next year as the AI boom keeps economic growth robust.

Fortune

Despite their ‘no limits’ friendship, Russia is paying a nearly 90% markup on sanctioned goods from China—compared with 9% from other countries

While the value of Chinese ball-bearing exports to Russia jumped by 76% from 2021 to 2024, the quantity of exports actually dropped by 13%.

Fortune

Could the EU’s frozen-assets plan really destabilise European bond markets?

EU plans to use frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine have prompted warnings that the move could push up government borrowing costs. But experts told Euronews Business that any impact on European debt markets is likely to be limited.

Euronews

The Fed is so divided that the next vote on rates could result in an unprecedented tie, analysts say. ‘Then things would get really messy’

Capital Economics sketched out a potential scenario where six Fed policymakers vote to keep rates steady while six vote to cut them again.

Fortune

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The FOMO-fueled gold bubble may now be turning into a ‘mini-bust,’ analysts say

“The latest leg of the gold rally looks like a market bubble that is in its final stages.”

Fortune

Russia's 'disposable-goods' war economy is getting busier but poorer, and Trump's new sanctions could trigger a recession, analysts say

"But the country has exhausted its reserves of manufacturing capacity and manpower."

Fortune

China focuses on high-tech and consumers as trade wars hit economy

An outline of the ruling Communist Party's blueprint for the next five years was laid out in a 5,000-word communique released on Thursday.

Euronews

China's next 5-year plan puts focus on high-tech and consumers as trade friction drags on economy

China's top leaders have pledged to boost the country's self-reliance in advanced technologies and spur stronger domestic demand over the next five years

The Independent UK

Here's how Trump can hit China's economy where it really hurts as analysts say Beijing's rare earths gamble could backfire

"Perhaps of greatest concern for China is the software used in advanced manufacturing – Western companies control over 70% of the Chinese market for chip design software, for example."

Fortune

As Wall Street banks crush records, America’s regional banks spook investors—but there’s a key difference from when SVB went bust

Raymond James said it views Zions’ disclosure as a “one-off credit hiccup” and not a systemic credit issue.

Fortune

What bubble? By this measure, the AI boom still isn’t at dotcom bust levels

Another key difference between now and the earlier boom-bust era is that the Federal Reserve is lowering rates instead of raising them.

Fortune

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Fortune

The U.S. economy is running even hotter than previously thought, and GDP growth could reach 4% in Q3

Stronger GDP also means the Federal Reserve will be under less pressure to lower rates aggressively.

Euronews

What to know about the H-1B visa Trump has targeted with $100,000 fees

At least 60% of the H-1B visas approved since 2012 have been for computer-related jobs, according to the Pew Research Center. But hospitals, banks, universities and a wide range of other employers can and do apply for H-1B visas.

The Independent UK

What Trump’s $100,000 H-1B visa fee means for employers and workers

The fee has stunned and confused people from the U.S. to India and beyond

International Business Times

Independence Of Central Banks Tested By Trump Attacks On US Fed

For months, US President Donald Trump has been piling pressure on the Federal Reserve over delayed cuts to interest rates, casting the institution's independence into doubt.

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Fortune

You’re welcome, world: U.S. tariffs may cool inflation for the rest of the global economy

“We doubt that U.S. tariffs will significantly affect inflation in the rest of the world, but if anything, the effect could be mildly disinflationary.”

International Business Times

Swiss Will Try To Negotiate Way Out Of Stiff US Tariffs

The Swiss government said Friday it would negotiate with the United States to try to avoid the tough 39-percent US tariff rate that would harm key industries.

Euronews

Chinese economy grows at a 5.2% annual pace despite trade war

China achieved GDP growth for the last quarter above the official 5% target, although strong exports to markets aside from the US masked weak domestic consumption.

Fortune

We're about to find out who's really paying for tariffs

Economists at Goldman Sachs expect companies will pass on 70% of tariff costs to consumers via higher prices.

Fortune

The TACO trade is backfiring on Wall Street as Trump seizes on stock market highs to charge ahead with tariffs

"Markets appear to believe that Trump will again back down. We are not so sure."

Fortune

The housing market is flashing warning signs about high mortgage rates and Gen Z and millennial first-time buyers, Capital Economics says

Don't expect mortgage rates to drop anytime soon, the London-based research firm says.

Fortune

Is your city a winner or loser in the return-to-office race? Capital Economics breaks it down

The London-based research firm also issued a forecast through 2029, finding three cities rising above the rest.

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