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The Latest Breaking News from Capital Economics

Why it’s unfair to compare the current market movement to catastrophic Truss mini-Budget

ANALYSIS : Ignore the comparisons, writes Howard Mustoe – any suggestions that market concerns over Rachel Reeves’s Budget bear any similarity to the chaos that followed Liz Truss’s economic disaster are wide of the mark

The Independent UK

Eurozone Economy Grows Faster Than Expected

The eurozone economy grew more than expected in the third quarter, official data showed Wednesday, thanks to Germany which defied expectations and dodged a recession.

International Business Times

Fortune 500 Europe: How Germany is flirting with long-term irrelevance

Everything that could go wrong has gone wrong for Germany’s economy. How can it turn things around?

Fortune

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China’s exports slow sharply in September, adding to worries over the economy

China’s exports slowed sharply in September as global demand weakened, adding to worries over how to recharge growth in the world's second-largest economy

The Independent UK

Andreessen Horowitz shutters its ‘Wall Street South’ office after 2 years because nobody was showing up

Miami is a winner in the office space slump, but its triumph wasn’t enough to stop Andreessen Horowitz from ditching its office in the city.

Fortune

Interest rate cuts are now all but guaranteed after dovish Fed meeting, experts say

“The Fed minutes removed all doubt about a September rate cut,” said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group.

Fortune

The latest drop in mortgage rates isn’t enough to bring sellers and buyers off the sidelines

“It seems that borrowing costs would have to fall below 5% to see a full recovery in home buying,” a Capital Economics economist wrote.

Fortune

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In the office space slump, Miami is winning

Big tech and billionaires are pushing people back to the office in Miami.

Fortune

Despite the stock crash, the AI-fueled bubble will soon regain momentum, economist says

Capital Economics said a recession is unlikely and growth will even reaccelerate after a soft patch in the second half of this year.

Fortune

Sunbelt boomtowns are cooling off, but the sun-soaked region will reclaim its hot status

More than 2 million single-family homes have been built in the South since January 2021, more than four times the number completed in the Northeast, according to a Capital Economics economist.

Fortune

Capital Economics: Minimal Economic Impact Expected From IT Disruption

Capital Economics' early assessment indicates minimal macroeconomic impact of recent disruption.

Top News

The typical monthly housing payment just fell from an all-time high

In a rare bit of good news, mortgage rates are the lowest they’ve been in months.

Fortune

Home prices are still sky-high, but competition isn’t as fierce, as the frenzied housing market slowly rebalances

In some ways the housing market is beginning to feel more like it did before the pandemic.

Fortune

If mortgage rates stay above 6.5%, ‘the chances of an imminent recovery are slim’ for housing demand, Capital Economics says

Mortgage applications and sales are weak, to say the least, off the back of dampening demand.

Fortune

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Fortune

Home prices just broke another all-time high. But things might be changing as price inflation slows

For the first time in close to a year, the pace of annual home price inflation dipped. Still, home prices and mortgage rates are considerably higher than before the pandemic.

Fortune

The housing market’s pivotal spring selling season is coming to an end—not with a bang, but with a whimper

Capital Economics says “mortgage demand and sales activity won’t recover until rates fall meaningfully below 7%.” The research firm expects that to happen only later this year.

The Independent UK

UK inflation predicted to drop close to Bank of England’s 2% target

Forecasters think inflation will drop to 2.1 per cent for April

Evening Standard

The Chancellor will be economical with the truth in the Budget

City Voices: Tough choices await after the election

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The Guardian - UK

Governments facing wipeout will always cut taxes but there are better uses for UK’s £20bn windfall

Instead, Jeremy Hunt could shelve plan to cut public investment or repair welfare safety net

Fortune

Falling mortgage rates don’t mean falling home prices, Capital Economics says, revising its forecast up for the year

The research firm’s property economist, Thomas Ryan, called its house price forecast “well above the consensus,” in a new research note.

International Business Times

Eurozone Inflation Rises To 2.9% In December

The annual rate of inflation in the eurozone rose to 2.9 percent in December mainly due to energy costs, official data showed Friday.

Fortune

Stocks are suffering from a New Year’s ‘hangover’ for 3 reasons, Capital Economics says

After a bullish 2023 and a big holiday season, the market is shaking off a few jitters in early January. A bit too much exuberance?

Fortune

Commercial real estate is coming off a half-trillion-dollar wipeout. It'll be a lot more complex than ‘mass obsolescence' next year, industry watchers say

While the commercial real estate market is facing substantial headwinds, it’s far from collapsing. But it’s still a rough road ahead, particularly for the office sector.

Fortune

Fitch Ratings says U.S. homes are ‘overvalued’ by nearly 10%—but homebuyers shouldn’t expect relief anytime soon

"Home prices keep marching higher," NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement, arguing that "only a dramatic rise in supply will dampen price appreciation."

Fortune

Commercial real estate values will suffer a $480 billion wipeout next year—and that’s following a $590 billion loss in 2023, research firm says

Here’s a closer look at the carnage, according to the firm’s recently published 2024 commercial property outlook.

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