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The Latest Breaking News from Capital Economics

The Strait of Hormuz is finally reopening, but energy flows may not get back to normal until next year

“Our working assumption is that ~80% of energy flows will resume by the end of Q3, but a return to ‘normal’ could stretch into 2027.”

Fortune

Even with a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, it could take weeks or months for oil to fully flow

The tentative agreement to end the war in Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz would be good news for the global economy

The Independent UK

What to know about Trump's $100,000 H-1B visa fee and the legal rebuke that followed

President Donald Trump last year dramatically ratched up the fee for H-1B work visas to $100,000, saying it would protect American workers from losing their jobs to lower-paid foreigners

AAP

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Indian bonds steady as U.S.-Iran tensions linger; RBI policy review due Friday

Indian government bonds saw little movement early Tuesday. Investors are adopting a cautious stance ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's policy decision later this week. Lingering U.S.-Iran tensions and upcoming state and central government bond sales are also keeping traders on the sidelines, leading to shallow trading volumes.

The Economic Times

Property prices are down in Dubai. Is it a war-induced blip, or something more serious?

Dubai’s real estate market has often defied expectations.

Fortune

America's housing market decline is 'no longer just a Sun Belt story'—LA and Dallas are tumbling, too

Price drops, broadening geographic weakness and a mortgage rate shock have prompted one leading forecaster to slash its outlook for 2026.

Fortune

Oil markets could be a month away from the moment of truth. Brace for a 'non-linear' price spike and panic buying, analysts warn

Oil prices could top $130-$140 a barrel next month if the strait remains closed and inventory depletion rates remain steady, according to Capital Economics.

Fortune

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Forget U.S. debt, China’s total borrowing is in 'a league of its own'—much worse and deteriorating faster, analyst says

China’s total debt across the public and private sectors is now 300% of GDP.

Fortune

The Iran war turned Mag 7 stocks into dip-buying bait. But no one is jumping in yet even though Wall Street expects U.S. tech to outperform

Microsoft has sold off 32% in just five months.

Fortune

One AI bubble has already burst. The next one—a 'rare' kind—is still growing, economist warns

Capital Economics’ John Higgins noted the price-earnings ratio has already collapsed from its peak—but there’s another metric that hasn’t.

Fortune

Stocks Slip Before the Open as Middle East Conflict Lifts Oil, U.S. Economic Data on Tap

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are down -0.62%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH26) are down -0.61% this morning as the escalating Middle East conflict pushes oil prices higher and weighs on risk appetite.

Barchart

War with Iran delivers another shock to the global economy

The war with Iran is doing collateral damage to the world economy

The Independent UK

The stock market bubble will burst in 2027, and the current rotation is a ‘warning of trouble ahead,’ Capital Economics says

Is the rotation in stocks a healthy market reaction or the first domino to fall?

Fortune

‘Trump will no longer be able to honor many of the “deals” he has negotiated’: How the Supreme Court crippled America’s negotiator-in-chief

The effective tariff rate skyrocketed from a mere 2% to 14%, Capital Economics calculates, and 9% of that came from tariffs that turned out to be illegal.

Fortune

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The Independent UK

Asia shares mostly lower after sharp Wall Street losses on AI-related worries

Asian markets are mostly lower after a tech sell-off on Wall Street over investor concerns on AI disruptions

The Guardian - UK

Rise in UK borrowing costs reverses after cabinet backs Starmer

Investors reassured by support for PM after fears about effect of a more left-leaning replacement on public finances

The Guardian - UK

UK house prices bounce back in January as analysts predict 2%-4% rise in 2026

Nationwide says average price of UK home rose by 0.3% last month after surprise fall in late 2025

Fortune

Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh could crush Trump's rate-cut hopes and risk suffering the same level of abuse that Powell got, analysts say

"Should Warsh find himself in the minority, he would have to decide whether he would tolerate being outvoted."

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Fortune

The U.S. has 'escalation dominance' in a debt war as Europe would face a violent market crash if it dumps Treasuries

Europe accounts for about a third of U.S. government bonds held overseas, or roughly 10% of the overall Treasury market.

The Independent UK

As a property slump drags on, China's economy looks more resilient than it feels

By some measures, China's economy is looking resilient, with strong exports and breakthroughs in artificial intelligence

Fortune

‘We’ve gotten out of whack’ by fixating so much on Fed rates, but the loss of its independence will be punished, BofA CEO Brian Moynihan says

“There’s too much fascination with the Fed,” Moynihan said.

Fortune

Trump and his new handpicked Fed chair—whoever it will be—are going to clash ‘almost immediately,’ economists predict

Capital Economics expects the Fed to cut rates by just 25 basis points next year as the AI boom keeps economic growth robust.

Fortune

Despite their ‘no limits’ friendship, Russia is paying a nearly 90% markup on sanctioned goods from China—compared with 9% from other countries

While the value of Chinese ball-bearing exports to Russia jumped by 76% from 2021 to 2024, the quantity of exports actually dropped by 13%.

Euronews

Could the EU’s frozen-assets plan really destabilise European bond markets?

EU plans to use frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine have prompted warnings that the move could push up government borrowing costs. But experts told Euronews Business that any impact on European debt markets is likely to be limited.

Fortune

The Fed is so divided that the next vote on rates could result in an unprecedented tie, analysts say. ‘Then things would get really messy’

Capital Economics sketched out a potential scenario where six Fed policymakers vote to keep rates steady while six vote to cut them again.

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