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The Latest Breaking News from Capital Economics

One AI bubble has already burst. The next one—a 'rare' kind—is still growing, economist warns

Capital Economics’ John Higgins noted the price-earnings ratio has already collapsed from its peak—but there’s another metric that hasn’t.

Fortune

Stocks Slip Before the Open as Middle East Conflict Lifts Oil, U.S. Economic Data on Tap

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are down -0.62%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH26) are down -0.61% this morning as the escalating Middle East conflict pushes oil prices higher and weighs on risk appetite.

Barchart

War with Iran delivers another shock to the global economy

The war with Iran is doing collateral damage to the world economy

The Independent UK

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The stock market bubble will burst in 2027, and the current rotation is a ‘warning of trouble ahead,’ Capital Economics says

Is the rotation in stocks a healthy market reaction or the first domino to fall?

Fortune

‘Trump will no longer be able to honor many of the “deals” he has negotiated’: How the Supreme Court crippled America’s negotiator-in-chief

The effective tariff rate skyrocketed from a mere 2% to 14%, Capital Economics calculates, and 9% of that came from tariffs that turned out to be illegal.

Fortune

Asia shares mostly lower after sharp Wall Street losses on AI-related worries

Asian markets are mostly lower after a tech sell-off on Wall Street over investor concerns on AI disruptions

The Independent UK

Rise in UK borrowing costs reverses after cabinet backs Starmer

Investors reassured by support for PM after fears about effect of a more left-leaning replacement on public finances

The Guardian - UK

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UK house prices bounce back in January as analysts predict 2%-4% rise in 2026

Nationwide says average price of UK home rose by 0.3% last month after surprise fall in late 2025

The Guardian - UK

Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh could crush Trump's rate-cut hopes and risk suffering the same level of abuse that Powell got, analysts say

"Should Warsh find himself in the minority, he would have to decide whether he would tolerate being outvoted."

Fortune

The U.S. has 'escalation dominance' in a debt war as Europe would face a violent market crash if it dumps Treasuries

Europe accounts for about a third of U.S. government bonds held overseas, or roughly 10% of the overall Treasury market.

Fortune

As a property slump drags on, China's economy looks more resilient than it feels

By some measures, China's economy is looking resilient, with strong exports and breakthroughs in artificial intelligence

The Independent UK

‘We’ve gotten out of whack’ by fixating so much on Fed rates, but the loss of its independence will be punished, BofA CEO Brian Moynihan says

“There’s too much fascination with the Fed,” Moynihan said.

Fortune

Trump and his new handpicked Fed chair—whoever it will be—are going to clash ‘almost immediately,’ economists predict

Capital Economics expects the Fed to cut rates by just 25 basis points next year as the AI boom keeps economic growth robust.

Fortune

Despite their ‘no limits’ friendship, Russia is paying a nearly 90% markup on sanctioned goods from China—compared with 9% from other countries

While the value of Chinese ball-bearing exports to Russia jumped by 76% from 2021 to 2024, the quantity of exports actually dropped by 13%.

Fortune

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Euronews

Could the EU’s frozen-assets plan really destabilise European bond markets?

EU plans to use frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine have prompted warnings that the move could push up government borrowing costs. But experts told Euronews Business that any impact on European debt markets is likely to be limited.

Fortune

The Fed is so divided that the next vote on rates could result in an unprecedented tie, analysts say. ‘Then things would get really messy’

Capital Economics sketched out a potential scenario where six Fed policymakers vote to keep rates steady while six vote to cut them again.

Fortune

The FOMO-fueled gold bubble may now be turning into a ‘mini-bust,’ analysts say

“The latest leg of the gold rally looks like a market bubble that is in its final stages.”

Fortune

Russia's 'disposable-goods' war economy is getting busier but poorer, and Trump's new sanctions could trigger a recession, analysts say

"But the country has exhausted its reserves of manufacturing capacity and manpower."

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Euronews

China focuses on high-tech and consumers as trade wars hit economy

An outline of the ruling Communist Party's blueprint for the next five years was laid out in a 5,000-word communique released on Thursday.

The Independent UK

China's next 5-year plan puts focus on high-tech and consumers as trade friction drags on economy

China's top leaders have pledged to boost the country's self-reliance in advanced technologies and spur stronger domestic demand over the next five years

Fortune

Here's how Trump can hit China's economy where it really hurts as analysts say Beijing's rare earths gamble could backfire

"Perhaps of greatest concern for China is the software used in advanced manufacturing – Western companies control over 70% of the Chinese market for chip design software, for example."

Fortune

As Wall Street banks crush records, America’s regional banks spook investors—but there’s a key difference from when SVB went bust

Raymond James said it views Zions’ disclosure as a “one-off credit hiccup” and not a systemic credit issue.

Fortune

What bubble? By this measure, the AI boom still isn’t at dotcom bust levels

Another key difference between now and the earlier boom-bust era is that the Federal Reserve is lowering rates instead of raising them.

Fortune

The U.S. economy is running even hotter than previously thought, and GDP growth could reach 4% in Q3

Stronger GDP also means the Federal Reserve will be under less pressure to lower rates aggressively.

Euronews

What to know about the H-1B visa Trump has targeted with $100,000 fees

At least 60% of the H-1B visas approved since 2012 have been for computer-related jobs, according to the Pew Research Center. But hospitals, banks, universities and a wide range of other employers can and do apply for H-1B visas.

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