The American Dream is alive and well ahead of the United States' next World Cup match against Australia. Prediction markets have made the United States a heavy favorite to earn their second win of the tournament.
Kalshi and Polymarket’s World Cup markets each have the USA listed at a 62% chance to win on Friday. This comes after the Americans demolished Paraguay 4-1 to begin the group stage.
USA vs Australia - Kalshi
- USA 62%
- Australia 19%
- Draw 22%
USA vs Australia - Polymarket
- USA 62%
- Australia 19%
- Draw 22%
The trading prices are the same across the board with similar payouts as well. A $10 stake on the U.S. profits $5.95, $41.35 for Australia, and $34.39 if the match ends in a draw.
The two sides coming in
Following a shaky 1-3 stretch of friendly matches leading up to the tournament, the U.S. quieted all doubts in their commanding 4-1 victory over Paraguay highlighted by a two-goal performance from Folarin Balogun.
Australia had a more dramatic first match, beating Türkiye 2-0 as an 18% underdog on Kalshi prior to kickoff in a match that saw Türkiye favored at 58% favorite to win.
Group D market shift
Markets no longer see a two-team race between the United States and Türkiye to top Group D. The U.S. opened as 40% favorites with Türkiye right behind them at 36%. Australia sat in the worst position with just a 10% chance.
Following the wins from the USMNT and Australia, the Americans have risen to a 68% favorite with Australia now second on the board at 21% while Türkiye dropped to 8%.
Group D Winner
- USA 68%
- Australia 21%
- Türkiye 8%
- Paraguay 2%
History of USA vs Australia
The two nations have met twice before. The United States won both matches with a 5-2 total goal margin. Their first meeting was in 2010, where the U.S. won 3-1. Their most recent head-to-head was in October 2025, with the U.S. winning 2-1.
The United States and Australia open the Friday slate of World Cup games at 3 p.m. ET from Lumen Field in Seattle on FOX.
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