Celtic could qualify for the knockout stages of the Champions League with just two more wins in the league phase.
Opta statistics suggest nine points would offer a 69 per cent probability of progressing as one of the top 24 sides in the revamped league phase.
Under the new competition format, the clubs finishing in the top eight will advance directly to the last 16. The clubs between ninth and 24th will enter a two-legged play-off with ninth to 16th drawn against 17th to 24th place teams.
How many points are likely to be needed to qualify from the new Champions League group stage? The Opta supercomputer has the answer...
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) September 17, 2024
Teams finishing 25th or lower in the league phase will be eliminated from the competition with no entry to the Europa League or Conference League.
Celtic kick-started their campaign with a thumping win over Slovan Bratislava to put themselves second in the table - only behind Bayern Munich.
Now, Opta have worked out that 10 points from the league phase should guarantee progression with a 99 per cent probability to make the top 24 with that points total.
Even eight points would offer a shot at the top 24 with a 16 per cent chance to make it then.
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In order to finish as one of the top eight sides, Celtic would likely need to pick up at least 15 points. That number would offer a 73 per cent chance of making the last 16.
Any clubs finishing on or above 16 points would expect to make the last 16 with a 98 per cent probability.
A 14-point haul would offer a 28 per cent chance of a top eight spot but would rely on other results being favourable.
Champions League qualification probability
Top eight finish: 16 points - 98% chance of qualifying / 15 points - 73% chance of qualifying
Top 24 finish: 10 points - 99% chance of qualifying / 9 points 69% chance of qualifying
