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Fortune
Fortune
Jim Edwards

Don’t get comfortable with the global stock rally today: Goldman’s ‘Panic Index’ is approaching ’max fear’

(Credit: Thomas Barwick—Getty Images)

S&P 500 futures were flat this morning after the index closed up strongly on Friday by 1.97%. Markets in Asia and Europe were strongly up this morning. The STOXX Europe 600 was up 0.27% in early trading; Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 3.89%; and South Korea’s KOSPI was up 4.1%. Even gold is now back above $5,000.

It would be nice to think that this is the start of a sustained global rally in equities.

But don’t get too comfortable: The S&P has been a roller-coaster all year, and Wall Street analysts don’t expect it to end anytime soon. Every time stocks take a step back in reaction to bad news, a relentless wave of buy-the-dippers has sent them back upward again. And every time stocks have rallied, an equally relentless wave of skeptics has pared those gains.

The shape of this chart of the year-to-date performance of the index tells you all you need to know:

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