Latinos in Texas are increasingly favoring the Republican party, with the trend not only showing in the south but across the entire state.
The scenario in a neighborhood in southeast Houston is illustrative of the shift, according to a report by The Associated Press.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton secured 68% of the vote in this precinct, a residential area near Hobby Airport with a predominantly Hispanic population. However, in the 2020 presidential election, President Joe Biden won the precinct by a 20-point margin against Donald Trump.
While this was still a strong performance for the Democrats, it represented a significant decline from Clinton's 40-point lead in 2016.
This local trend is part of a broader pattern observed across Texas. In recent elections, Republicans have made significant gains among Latino voters, particularly in South Texas, turning previously solid Democratic strongholds into political battlegrounds.
The situation becomes more politically relevant when considering that Latinos Texans now outnumber non-Hispanic white residents in the state.
While much of the attention has focused on border communities, a quieter rightward shift is also occurring among Latino voters in urban and suburban areas, posing a potential threat to Democrats' efforts to turn Texas into a reliably blue state.
The declining Democratic margins among Latino voters in urban areas could have significant implications for future statewide elections. In 2016, Clinton won Latino voters statewide by 27 points, a margin similar to Barack Obama's 28-point lead in 2008.
However, in 2020, Biden's margin among Latino voters dropped to 17 points, with nearly 40% of voters from the demographic supporting Trump. This decline was evident in precincts with a high concentration of Latino voters in major cities like Houston and San Antonio.
Despite the GOP's gains, challenges remain in urban areas where most predominantly Latino precincts still lean Democratic. Public polling highlights differences in the attitudes of Latino voters in urban areas compared to those in South Texas, indicating that both parties need to tailor their messages to regional concerns. Issues such as border security and abortion rights are viewed differently depending on where Latino voters live, making it clear that a one-size-fits-all approach will not be effective.
Nonetheless, Texas Republicans are optimistic about continuing their momentum. They are focusing on issues such as inflation, the economy, immigration, and crime, which they believe resonate strongly with this demographic. Senator Ted Cruz, who is running for reelection, has launched a $4.4 million advertising campaign targeting Latino voters, with a significant portion dedicated to Spanish-language ads.
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