In 1877, North Americans experienced an unusually mild winter – it was known as the “year without a winter”. It coincided with one of the strongest El Niño events ever recorded. Scientists suspect the same El Niño was a major factor in one of the worst environmental disasters in history. As much of the world was enveloped in drought, harvests collapsed in India, China, parts of Africa, and Brazil. The drought, compounded by colonial and other socioeconomic policies, led to the “Great Famine”, which killed between 30 and 60 million people, about 3% of the world’s population at the time.
What distinguishes us from the victims of 1877 is not luck but data. When I served as deputy administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, I saw modern ocean monitoring and forecasting provide the advance warnings the Victorians lacked. This lead time saves thousands of lives and billions of dollars each year. Today, we can anticipate climate shocks before they arrive.
