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The Latest Breaking News from the EY Item Club

Quarter of a million people could lose job by middle of 2027 as UK ‘flirts with recession’, analysis says

Twin reports from top accounting firms underline scale of economic threat as Iran war shatters business confidence

The Guardian - UK

UK growth to slow and business investment to contract amid tax hikes – report

The EY Item Club is forecasting growth to pull back to 0.9% in 2026 and for business investment to contract by 0.2%.

Evening Standard

December cut to UK interest rates ‘nailed on’ after economy shrinks unexpectedly by 0.1% in October – as it happened

Disappointing UK GDP report shows economy contracted by 0.1% in both September and October

The Guardian - UK

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Tax rises and drop in investment predicted to limit UK growth

EY Item Club downgrades forecast for next year, with Office for Budget Responsibility expected to follow suit

The Guardian - UK

Mortgage lending ‘set for a boost in 2025 after two years of suppressed demand’

The UK’s gradual economic recovery is strengthening confidence, according to the EY ITEM Club outlook.

Evening Standard

UK mortgage lending growth set to double in 2025 as falling interest rates revive market

The UK’s gradual economic recovery is strengthening confidence, according to the EY ITEM Club outlook

The Independent UK

Wage growth accelerates despite flagging jobs market

Official figures revealed that average regular pay surged again, to 5.6% in the three months to November.

Evening Standard

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Reeves may have to U-turn over no more tax rises, warn economists

Dramatic economic slowdown means chancellor could face lower receipts and higher borrowing costs in 2025

The Guardian - UK

Average London house prices spring up 1.2% in March, reports Nationwide

The average price for a house in the capital is currently £519,505

Evening Standard

Bank of England could 'lay the groundwork' for interest rate cuts this week

The Bank is also expected to publish much more optimistic inflation projections this week

Evening Standard

UK Economic Revival Predicted: Falling Inflation and Tax Cuts Set Stage for Growth

A recent study conducted by the EY Item Club, a prominent forecasting body sponsored by EY, suggests that the nation is poised for a resurgence in the latter half of the year.

International Business Times UK

‘Good chance’ UK may have fallen into technical recession; S&P 500 hits fresh all-time high – as it happened

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as US stocks hit record high in early trading

The Guardian - UK

UK economic growth to rebound in late 2024, leading forecaster says

EY Item Club report hands PM new year boost with prediction that inflation drop will allow interest rates to fall to 4% by year end

The Guardian - UK

Decade-low mortgage growth forecast amid high costs

Mortgage loans in 2023 are expected to rise just 1.5% net and 2% net in 2024

The Independent UK

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The Independent UK

Decade-low mortgage growth forecast amid high mortgage costs and sluggish demand

Significant cost-of-living pressures continue to affect households’ ability to spend, according to EY ITEM Club.

Evening Standard

UK house prices up almost 1% since last month but mortgage approvals plunge

Just 43,300 mortgages were approved in September, 30 per cent less than the monthly average in 2019

Evening Standard

Markets fear Israeli invasion of Gaza will push oil price over $100 a barrel

Brent Crude was steady at least today, but was still above $90 a barrel amid fears it will go to $100 with inevitable implications for petrol prices

The Guardian - UK

Bond yields rise after US jobs report smashes forecasts – as it happened

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as US non-farm payroll shows surge in hiring last month

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The Guardian - UK

Sharon White stepping down from John Lewis; UK house prices fall at fastest rate since 2009 – as it happened

John Lewis chair Sharon White will not seek second term at retailer, as Nationwide reports UK house prices fell 5.3% in year to September

The Independent UK

Number of home buyer mortgage approvals slumped to six-month low in August

Net approvals for remortgaging fell to the lowest level since 2012, the Bank of England said.

The National (Scotland)

UK facing 'heightened recession risks' as private sector suffers shock decline

AN economist has warned the UK is facing “heightened recession risks” after the private sector suffered a shock downturn in August.

The Guardian - UK

Pound on worst run since March 2020 with UK economy ‘close to stalling’; some Gatwick strikes suspended – as it happened

UK private sector growth slowed to six-month low this month, while DHL workers have cancelled Gatwick strikes and other strikes are suspended

The Independent UK

Hopes raised that upward pressure on mortgage rates could start to ease

Consumer Prices Index inflation was 7.9% in June, down from 8.7% in May.

Evening Standard

London property market stagnant amid warnings of UK-wide house price falls

The typical London house price in March was £537,250, which is very slightly up (0.1 per cent) on this time last year

The Independent UK

Average UK house price increased by 0.8% in March, says Halifax

The typical house price in March was £287,880, which was about 2% below a peak reached last August, according to Halifax’s report.

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