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The Latest Breaking News from Stefan Wolff

Ukraine recap: the bleak prospect of a Trump-Vance White House

Ukraine will no longer exist by 2034, or so says former Russian president and Kremlin attack dog, Dmitry Medvedev. Medvedev didn’t say so in as many words. But, reflecting recently on the outgoing Nato leader Jens Stoltenberg’s dream of Ukraine joining within ten years, he said none of the current…

The Conversation · Jul 18, 2024

Ukraine recap: Zelensky says ‘no’ to Hungary’s ceasefire proposal and ‘hurry up’ to western aid

Ukraine’s troops remain frustrated at delays in getting fresh supplies of arms and ammunition, according to reports from the frontline. It’s been several months since the US and the EU signed off on their massive aid packages to Kyiv, yet the bulk of the weapons have yet to find their…

The Conversation · Jul 4, 2024

Ukraine recap: Putin love-in with Kim Jong-un contrasts with western disarray over peace plan

Hotfoot from signing a security pact with North Korea on Wednesday, Vladimir Putin has popped up in Vietnam, another of the few remaining countries where the Russian president is still welcome (or doesn’t face arrest under the war crimes warrant issued by the International Criminal Court last year). Here he…

The Conversation · Jun 20, 2024

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Ukraine recap: Putin on top as Kyiv scrambles to play catch-up on the battlefield

Vladimir Putin has been looking pretty chipper of late. Two weeks ago saw him wearing his trademark vulpine smile as he presided over the Victory Day commemorations in Moscow. It was a rather more upbeat occasion than in the two years previously, given recent Russian successes on the battlefield. Then,…

The Conversation · May 23, 2024

Ukraine recap: Zelensky's defiant new year speech foreshadows tough 2024 as government tightens conscription laws

Ukraine is alive. Ukraine lives. Ukraine fights. Ukraine advances, Ukraine overcomes the path. Ukraine gains. Ukraine works. Ukraine exists.

The Conversation · Jan 4, 2024

Ukraine recap: as cracks appear in western support, 2024 looks set to be a desperate fight for survival

While it may seem glib to repeat the notion of a new cold war, winter 2023-2024 has brought with it the sense that there is now an ever-more uncertain faultline between the west and an increasingly aggressive Russia – perhaps more vividly than at any time since the late 1980s.…

The Conversation · Dec 21, 2023

Ukraine recap: western divisions an ominous sign for Kyiv as the aid funding tap begins to dry up

For the past week or so it has felt as if Ukraine’s fate is more likely to be decided in Washington and Brussels than on the battlefield as US president Joe Biden struggles to get his US$111 billion (£88 billion) package of aid through the senate and EU members quibble…

The Conversation · Dec 7, 2023

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Ukraine recap: naval success raises hopes of advantage against Russia this winter

War in wintertime is especially challenging militarily. Troops have to deal with the risk of frostbite while vehicles can’t always move over muddy or frozen terrain. It’s no wonder then that wars tend to move much more slowly during the colder months.

The Conversation · Nov 23, 2023

Ukraine recap: with winter closing in Zelensky resists calls to negotiate – but Gaza war adds to pressure

For the past month, the world’s attention has reeled at the violence in Israel and Gaza. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine has ground on, day by day, metre by metre. Fierce fighting has continued in the north-eastern Donetsk region as a Russian offensive has attempted – thus far unsuccessfully –…

The Conversation · Nov 9, 2023

Ukraine recap: Ukraine and allies maintain optimism despite slow progress on the battlefield

At a press conference after talks with the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, this afternoon, Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg sounded like a man determined to take a “glass half full” attitude when he said that “every metre that Ukrainian forces regain is a metre that Russia loses”.

The Conversation · Sep 28, 2023

Ukraine recap: fallout from death of Yevgeny Prigozhin will be felt far beyond Moscow

Where were you when you heard that Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin’s aircraft had crashed and he was presumed dead? For Ukraine watchers it was something of a surreal JFK moment. And, like the Zapruder tape, the video footage of the Russian mercenary group commander’s Embraer Legacy 600 private jet…

The Conversation · Aug 31, 2023

Yevgeny Prigozhin and the long list of those who challenged Vladimir Putin and paid the price

Stefan Wolff professor of international security at the University of Birmingham explains how Yevgeny Prigozhin is just another in a long line of those who have faced an early demise after opposing Vladimir Putin.

The Week · Aug 28, 2023

Ukraine recap: bridgehead across the Dnipro river a key objective as Kyiv works to maintain solidarity among allies

Google the words “Ukraine counteroffensive” and the adverb you will most commonly find associated with them is “slowly”. The popular misconception in the months leading up to the launch of Ukraine’s summer push was that, like last autumn’s lightning counter-attacks around Kherson in the south and Kharkiv in the north-east…

The Conversation · Aug 17, 2023

Ukraine recap: counter-offensive gathers pace while Wagner Group takes on new role

Reports from the front lines of the various conflict zones reveal daily just how difficult Ukraine is finding its summer counter-offensive. Russia has had months to build defensive fortifications and Ukrainian troops are having to fight their way through territory which – according to Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of Ukraine’s…

The Conversation · Aug 3, 2023

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The Conversation · Jul 6, 2023

Ukraine recap: Yevgeny Prigozhin and the mystery of the mutiny that never was

Ukrainian units are forcing their Russian foes back by what on some days seems like a few metres at a time. But on June 24, at least some Russian troops moved much more rapidly toward their own capital.

The Week · Jun 26, 2023

Prigozhin’s revolt: is Russia really heading for ‘sudden collapse’?

Britain must be ready for the end of Vladimir Putin’s rule in Russia, government insiders have warned following the Wagner Group’s failed revolt at the weekend.

The Conversation · Jun 22, 2023

Ukraine recap: counteroffensive makes slow progress while diplomacy fails to make any ground at all

So the Ukrainian counteroffensive is well and truly underway, even if progress is measured in metres rather than the rapid advances that characterised Ukraine’s highly successful push last autumn. Volodymyr Zelensky himself has confirmed this, saying progress has been “slower than desired” and noting that the Russian invaders have mined…

The Conversation · Jun 8, 2023

Ukraine recap: dams, lies and economic statistics

The likely cause of the destruction of the Kakhovka dam and power plant in the early hours of Tuesday morning remains shrouded in mystery – predictably, both sides are blaming each other. But it’s important to remember that under the Geneva conventions the destruction of infrastructure such as dams and…

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The Conversation · Jun 6, 2023

Kakhovka dam breach: 3 essential reads on what it means for Ukraine's infrastructure, beleaguered nuclear plant and future war plans

A dam that supplies drinking water to thousands of Ukrainians as well as cooling water for reactors at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station was ruptured on June 6, 2023.

The Conversation · May 25, 2023

Ukraine recap: Moscow's 'pyrrhic victory' in Bakhmut prompts unrest in the Russian military, but it's all smiles for Zelensky

After the best part of a year, Russia has claimed victory in the meat-grinder that was the Battle of Bakhmut in Ukraine’s east. But the battle achieved virtually none of Russia’s original strategic objectives and came at a cost of Russian lives, estimated by Wagner Group boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin, as…

The Conversation · May 23, 2023

Stefan Wolff and Tetyana Malyarenko win Sir Paul Curran award for academic journalism – their editor explains why

During the average year on The Conversation we routinely work with thousands of authors. One of the unique selling points that makes our operation such a valuable resource in this era of polarisation and fake news is that we can call upon the deep knowledge of so many academic authors.

The Conversation · May 11, 2023

Ukraine recap: not a great deal to celebrate for Putin this Victory Day as Ukraine digs in for the long haul

One tank. According to press reports and news broadcasts from Moscow, a solitary T-34 dating back to the second world war was the only tank that trundled past the Russian president as he marked a scaled-down Victory Day on May 9 this year.

The Conversation · Apr 13, 2023

Ukraine recap: downbeat US intelligence leak suggests no end in sight for the misery of this war

What we know – or think we know – about the progress of the war in Ukraine over the past few days has come courtesy of leaked Pentagon documents which appear to cover, in some detail, a wide range of issues around the conflict. As you’d expect, among the main…

The Conversation · Feb 16, 2023

Ukraine recap: how the conflict might unfold in its second year

Almost exactly a year ago – on February 17 2022 – we published a story by David Galbreath, an expert in international security from the University of Bath. In it he pointed to the fact that – despite the Kremlin’s repeated assurances to the contrary – an invasion of Ukraine…

The Conversation · Feb 2, 2023

Ukraine recap: Kyiv keeps its friends close, but will they send the latest warplanes?

The latest dispatches from the Institute for the Study of War make for sobering reading. After a few months in which the initiative on the battlefield was generally considered to be firmly with Ukraine, the pendulum appears as if it could be swinging gradually back Russia’s way.

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