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The Latest Breaking News from Neil Quilliam

Trump will sell a Hormuz deal as a success. It barely takes him back to where he started

IN FOCUS: The US and Iran have fought over the Strait for months, deepening a global economic crisis. Experts tell Alex Croft that Trump may end up accepting key Iranian demands just to end an unpopular war

The Independent UK

The Trump toll: Why plan to charge ships 20% fee in Strait of Hormuz will never work

Trump’s 20 per cent toll on shipping could more than double the cost of transporting oil from the Gulf to Europe, say analysts

The Independent UK

How a vague clause in Trump’s peace deal led to anarchy in the Strait of Hormuz

IN FOCUS: The global economy is facing uncertainty after the resumption of hostilities between the US and Iran. Experts tell Maira Butt that negotiators must go back to the drawing board on the Strait if disruption is to be avoided

The Independent UK

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How Dubai is trying to bring tourists and investors back after months of regional tensions

Dubai convened business leaders following Iran's strikes to mitigate economic fallout, pledging $681 million in support. While a preliminary peace deal eases immediate strains, restoring investor confidence requires sustained signals of authority response to future tensions. Analysts suggest more targeted incentives may be necessary for sectors like tourism and aviation…

The Economic Times

US push to get Iran talks started hits an early bump due to intense fighting in Lebanon

High-stakes talks between the US and Iran have stalled as Tehran demands an end to Israeli strikes in Lebanon before negotiations can begin. Vice President Vance's planned trip to Switzerland was postponed amid escalating violence. President Trump expressed confidence in the 60-day negotiation window, while Iran's supreme leader endorsed direct…

The Economic Times

US-Iran deal may get oil flowing again, but region’s root problems are unsolved

Few analysts believe final settlement can be reached in 60 days – and even if it is, war and instability could soon return

The Guardian - UK

Are the latest strikes between Trump and Iran the prelude to all-out war - or just the new normal?

IN FOCUS: Tehran has said that the latest round of US strikes has left the ceasefire ‘practically meaningless’, but Washington maintains that diplomacy is continuing. Experts tell Alex Croft that the chances of a terrible miscalculation are increasing

The Independent UK

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Strait of Hormuz oil crisis: An opportunity for Syria?

In the show this week, we look at how Syria could benefit from the oil crisis triggered by tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. After Iran effectively closed the strategic waterway, Syria's Mediterranean port of Baniyas found itself emerging as a hub for crude oil transported overland from the UAE…

France 24

Trump threatens ‘a big hit’ if Tehran does not make deal soon

Renewed threat comes after US president said he was ‘an hour away’ from ordering a strike before pulling back

The Guardian - UK

Trump’s blockade appears to be turning back tankers in the Strait of Hormuz – but Iran has a trick up its sleeve

Analysts say that Iran has already moved vast quantities of its oil offshore and a full blockade would be complex to implement

The Independent UK

Why Iran’s vital Kharg Island oil hub is still untouched by US-Israel bombers

While some argue for destroying the terminal through which 90% of Iran’s oil exports flow, others caution of a global market ‘tailspin’

The Guardian - UK

Will war in the Middle East ruin Mohammed Bin Salman’s plan to make Saudi the new Dubai?

IN DEPTH: Saudi Arabia’s crown prince hoped the kingdom would soon rival the UAE as the business hub and safe haven in the region. But experts tell Tara Cobham that a protracted conflict threatens

The Independent UK

Neom nightmare: How Mohammed bin Salman’s dream of a ‘city of the future’ became a $500bn disaster

IN DEPTH: Nearly a decade ago, the Saudi crown prince promised to build a gleaming utopia on the coast of the Red Sea that would redefine how human beings lived and worked. But experts say the scaling back of his project reveals that it was always an impossible dream in…

The Independent UK

How Iran's 'Telegraphed' Strikes On Qatari Soil Paved Way To Israel Truce

Iran's unprecedented strikes on a US base in Qatar were carefully calculated to provide an exit from hostilities with Washington and set up a truce with Israel, according to analysts and an official.

International Business Times

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International Business Times

US-Hamas Talks Complicate Gaza Truce Efforts: Analysts

Unprecedented direct talks between the US and Hamas are a sign of dysfunction in fraught negotiations to prolong a truce in Gaza, analysts said Thursday.

The Guardian - UK

‘Worst nightmare’: Egypt and Jordan put in impossible bind by Trump Gaza plan

Though heavily dependent on US aid, Amman and Cairo face political calamity at home should they comply

Top News

Rebel Offensive Threatens Assad Regime, Russia's Support Uncertain

Assad regime's survival in jeopardy as rebel forces advance, experts emphasize need for Russian military support.

Al Jazeera

Posters to protests: The dynamics of Jordan’s recent elections

Voter apathy sparred with anger over the war on Gaza as Jordanians made their choices for parliament.

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International Business Times

Qataris 'Strike Back' At Gaza Mediation Critics

Criticism of Qatar over its role as a mediator between Israel and Hamas has prompted a rare pushback by the Gulf state against its detractors, analysts have said.

The Guardian - UK

Why oil prices are rising amid the Israel-Hamas war

To date oil and gas flows from the Middle East remain fairly unaffected – but there are concerns about escalation

Al Jazeera

Analysis: Efforts to end Assad isolation gather speed after quake

Experts say many Arab governments see last month’s earthquake disaster as reason to deepen engagement with al-Assad.

The Guardian - UK

Why is the US so angry with Saudi Arabia about oil supply cuts?

Joe Biden has threatened ‘consequences’ after Opec+ decided to reduce output in a decision that will benefit Russia

The Guardian - UK

Thursday briefing: Has Saudi Arabia picked Putin over Biden?

In today’s newsletter: After a summer spent persuading Saudi Arabia to lower costs, the world’s largest oil producer is doing the opposite – now the US president promises ‘consequences’

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