The Assad regime is facing a significant challenge from rebel forces, with experts suggesting that without swift and substantial military support from Russia, its survival may be in jeopardy. Neil Quilliam, an associate fellow at Chatham House, a UK-based think-tank, expressed doubts about the regime's ability to withstand the rebel offensive without a large-scale Russian deployment. Quilliam highlighted the growing threat posed by groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) as they advance towards Damascus, indicating a slim chance of the regime surviving without Russian intervention.
Quilliam noted that while the regime might offer resistance in Damascus, the momentum currently favors the rebel groups, who are determined to overthrow Assad. Despite Russia's previous airstrikes in Idlib and Aleppo, Quilliam observed that the support provided to Assad has been minimal. He pointed out that Russia's current capacity to assist Assad is limited, partly due to its military engagements in Ukraine.
Quilliam highlighted the contrast between Russia's current restrained intervention and its more extensive deployment in 2015 when Assad's regime was under significant threat. He suggested that Russia's decision on military aid to Syria would depend on the evolving situation in the country. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov indicated that Moscow would assess the need for military assistance based on the developments in Syria.
