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The Latest Breaking News from Mark Zandi

Winter is coming: U.S. will be most vulnerable to a recession late this year and early next as tariff and immigration fallout peak, top economist says

With the economy facing many threats, it wouldn’t take much to push it into recession, Mark Zandi warns.

Fortune

Trump Administration Orders Immigration Officials To Deny Benefits Over 'Anti-American' Views, Even If Applicants Qualify Under Law

The Trump administration has directed officials to probe any ‘anti-American’ sentiments among immigrants seeking benefits such as green cards and work permits. This move could potentially lead to application denials.

Benzinga

Trump is deporting so many immigrants that it could cause inflation to hit 4% next year, top economist says

Even conservative Heritage Foundation economist Steven Moore is worried about a labor shortage.

Fortune

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When the next recession hits, whoever is president will face intense pressure to cut tariffs, so don’t rely on them for revenue, top economist says

“There’s going to be a strong incentive on that president’s part to say, ‘Okay, I’m going to cut the taxes.’”

Fortune

More than half of industries are already shedding workers, a 'telling' sign that's accompanied past recessions, top economist says

“Things could still turn around if the economic policies weighing on the economy soon lift. But that looks increasingly unlikely.”

Fortune

The U.S. economy may be ‘bad to ugly’ right now, but investors are loving every minute of it

Stocks sink as weak job growth and rising tariffs push the U.S. economy from “bad to ugly.”

Fortune

Data quality at risk as federal workforce shrinks, says top economist

Investing in reliable data and the people who collect it is a foundation for smart decisions, according to Moody's Mark Zandi.

Fortune

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Did DOGE contribute to the BLS jobs report that Trump hated? Economist Mark Zandi thinks so

Cuts to government jobs are contributing to downward employment revisions, says Zandi.

Fortune

Moody's Chief Economist Warns US Economy On 'Precipice Of Recession' As Tariffs, Labor Shortages Trigger Market Selloff

Moody‘s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi warned on Sunday that the American economy stands “on the precipice of recession” following last week’s disappointing economic data releases that sent major indexes tumbling.

Benzinga

Top economist warns the U.S. is 'on the precipice of recession' — and it will be hard for the Fed to come to the rescue

“Consumer spending has flatlined, construction and manufacturing are contracting, and employment is set to fall.”

Fortune

Top economist sounds the alarm even louder on the housing market and says homebuilders are 'giving up'

"A big tell is that many builders are delaying their land purchases from the land banks. New home sales, starts, and completions will soon fall."

Fortune

Moody's Warns Of Housing Market 'Red Flare' As Sales Plunge, Builders Back Off

The U.S. housing market is showing signs of a significant slowdown, with a sharp decline in sales and a potential threat to the economy, according to Moody’s.

Benzinga

US manufacturers are stuck in a rut despite subsidies from Biden and protection from Trump

Democratic President Joe Biden handed out subsidies to chipmakers and electric vehicle manufacturers

The Independent UK

White House Credits Trump With Trillions in Investments Made During Biden Admin as 'The Trump Effect'

President Donald Trump has taken credit for trillions of investments into the United States, motivated by what he has referred to as "the Trump Effect", despite the fact that many of the investments originated under the Biden administration.

Latin Times

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Kiplinger

What's Next for Stocks After a Chaotic Spring

A chaotic tariff policy buffets investors looking for clarity on the economy and inflation.

The Guardian - UK

US credit rating downgrade could add to pressure on government debt

Loss of Moody’s triple-A rating comes amid concerns about fiscal trajectory and widening budget deficit

We Got This Covered

‘Are we winning yet?’: Concern grows as Moody’s cuts U.S. Credit Rating — but Trump’s administration shrugs it off as ‘Not Serious’

Trump tries to solve the economy with "alternative facts."

Fortune

Goldman Sachs pulled its recession call moments after Trump pressed pause on tariffs. Moody's chief economist isn't convinced: 'I take no solace in the president's announcement'

Markets are bouncing back, but not everyone is so relieved.

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Fortune

A top forecaster sees the market bottoming as Wall Street raises recession forecasts over Trump tariffs

Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Moody’s see an elevated chance of a recession this year on the back of tariffs and trade wars.

Fortune

Goldman Sachs now sees much higher odds of economy shrinking, hiking probability of a U.S. recession to 35%

Goldman believes the tax-like impact on real disposable income and consumer spending from Trump's tariff policies will hurt U.S. growth prospects.

Fortune

Boston Fed president says tariff-induced inflation ‘looks inevitable.’ She suspects the central bank will hold rates steady for longer

However, Susan Collins said the inflation could be short-lived.

Fortune

Jerome Powell doubles down on a word that has haunted him, saying pain from tariffs would be ‘transitory’

The Fed’s slowness to catch the inflation surge that began during the pandemic has earned it scads of criticism. Is this time different?

Fortune

Wall Street's recession odds are starting to look like a coin flip as Trump refuses to back down on his trade war

"If we would continue down this road of what would be more disruptive, business-unfriendly policies, I think the risks on that recession front would go up."

The Independent UK

Five of the world’s richest people attended Trump’s inauguration. They have lost $209 billion since that day

Elon Musk’s net worth has tumbled by $148 billion alone since Trump took office

Barchart

Is a Recession Coming in 2025? 3 Experts Weigh In.

Experts are increasingly concerned that Trump tariffs could lead to a recession in 2025, with one even pegging the possibility at 75%.

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