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The Latest Breaking News from Mark Zandi

Moody's Mark Zandi Warns Of 'Uncomfortably High' 48% Probability Of US Recession In Next 12 Months

The U.S. economy faces an “uncomfortably high” 48% probability of slipping into a recession within the next 12 months, according to Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics.

Benzinga

This housing data is the 'most critical economic variable' for predicting recessions, and it's now at the lowest level since pandemic shutdowns

Moody’s own leading economic indicator that uses machine learning has estimated the odds of a recession in the next 12 months are now at 48%.

Fortune

Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi Warns Fed Faces High Bar To Avoid Rate Cuts As Weak Jobs Trump Inflation Risks Ahead Of CPI Report

Moody's Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi said the Federal Reserve is more likely to cut rates next week despite inflation running above target, citing a stalled labor market and rising recession risks.

Benzinga

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The Fed 'desperately' wants to avoid a recession because it doesn't want to get blamed and put its independence at risk, top economist says

"Obviously nobody wants a recession. But also in the context of Fed independence, they really don't want to get blamed for going into a downturn because that would impair their ability."

Fortune

Congressional Budget Office says Trump's immigration crackdown will shrink U.S. population faster than expected, a threat to inflation and GDP growth

Economists have warned the president’s immigration policies could drive a labor shortage threatening to shrink U.S. GDP growth and amplify inflation.

Fortune

The most troubling feature of the job market is how thinly spread gains are, top economist says — 'this only happens when the economy is in recession'

"Since the beginning of the year, the economy has created a paltry 600k jobs, but without the job growth in these industries, there would be zero job growth."

Fortune

US Labor Market On The Edge: Moody's Economist Warns Shrinking Workforce Signals Looming Economic Recession

The U.S. labor market is showing alarming signs of contraction, prompting Moody’s Analytics‘ top economist Mark Zandi to warn that a full-blown recession could be on the horizon.

Benzinga

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America’s job growth has flatlined—and Mark Zandi believes June may have been the start of a recession

June’s job loss was the first since the pandemic, a flashing-red signal that the economy’s growth momentum has stopped.

Fortune

Moody's Says One-Third of the U.S. Is Already in—or Near—Recession

Although the stock market continues to reach all-time highs, not everyone is doing well in the U.S.

Benzinga

Top economist Torsten Slok warns of an ‘inflation mountain’ in a potential repeat of the ’70s

“The risks are rising that we could see another ‘inflation mountain’ emerge over the coming months,” Apollo Global’s chief economist said.

Fortune

UBS gives America a recession check-up and sees a 93% probability from the hard data, with a 'soggy' economy ahead

“Stable but elevated” isn't something you want to hear in a medical checkup or in a recession likelihood outlook.

Fortune

Jim Cramer Refuses To Chase Rally—Says 'We Sure Aren't Buying' Unless It's Discounted

Jim Cramer is sitting out the current market rally, citing excessive intervention and overbought conditions as key reasons to remain cautious.

Benzinga

Moody's Chief Economist Flags 22 States As Already In Recession Or At 'High Risk,' Says Only These 2 States Are 'Holding Their Own'

The U.S. economy is on the "edge of recession," and states accounting for nearly a third of national output are already in or at high risk, Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi said Sunday, citing fresh state-level readings of employment and output.

Benzinga

A third of the U.S. economy is already in a recession or at high risk, and another third is stagnating, Zandi warns

“Southern states are generally the strongest, but their growth is slowing.”

Fortune

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Latin Times

Inflation Could Spike in 2026 Because of Trump's Deportations, Top Economist Warns

The White House, however, rejected the link between deportations and inflation, emphasizing that the immigration crackdown is meant to "protect the American workforce"

Fortune

Winter is coming: U.S. will be most vulnerable to a recession late this year and early next as tariff and immigration fallout peak, top economist says

With the economy facing many threats, it wouldn’t take much to push it into recession, Mark Zandi warns.

Benzinga

Trump Administration Orders Immigration Officials To Deny Benefits Over 'Anti-American' Views, Even If Applicants Qualify Under Law

The Trump administration has directed officials to probe any ‘anti-American’ sentiments among immigrants seeking benefits such as green cards and work permits. This move could potentially lead to application denials.

Fortune

Trump is deporting so many immigrants that it could cause inflation to hit 4% next year, top economist says

Even conservative Heritage Foundation economist Steven Moore is worried about a labor shortage.

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Fortune

When the next recession hits, whoever is president will face intense pressure to cut tariffs, so don’t rely on them for revenue, top economist says

“There’s going to be a strong incentive on that president’s part to say, ‘Okay, I’m going to cut the taxes.’”

Fortune

More than half of industries are already shedding workers, a 'telling' sign that's accompanied past recessions, top economist says

“Things could still turn around if the economic policies weighing on the economy soon lift. But that looks increasingly unlikely.”

Fortune

The U.S. economy may be ‘bad to ugly’ right now, but investors are loving every minute of it

Stocks sink as weak job growth and rising tariffs push the U.S. economy from “bad to ugly.”

Fortune

Data quality at risk as federal workforce shrinks, says top economist

Investing in reliable data and the people who collect it is a foundation for smart decisions, according to Moody's Mark Zandi.

Fortune

Did DOGE contribute to the BLS jobs report that Trump hated? Economist Mark Zandi thinks so

Cuts to government jobs are contributing to downward employment revisions, says Zandi.

Benzinga

Moody's Chief Economist Warns US Economy On 'Precipice Of Recession' As Tariffs, Labor Shortages Trigger Market Selloff

Moody‘s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi warned on Sunday that the American economy stands “on the precipice of recession” following last week’s disappointing economic data releases that sent major indexes tumbling.

Fortune

Top economist warns the U.S. is 'on the precipice of recession' — and it will be hard for the Fed to come to the rescue

“Consumer spending has flatlined, construction and manufacturing are contracting, and employment is set to fall.”

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