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The Latest Breaking News from Kent Smetters

Trump, the $39 trillion national debt, rosy growth assumptions and the question of 'a sustainable path'

The White House is betting 3% GDP growth will shrink the deficit—but faster growth would likely drive up interest costs on the $39 trillion national debt.

Fortune

Trump just raised the $39 trillion national debt with the largest budget hike since World War II—and nobody can figure out how to pay for it

“MAGA was told an untruth by Trump—no foreign wars, no adventurism,” Steve Hanke told Fortune. “This is a massive militarization.”

Fortune

Social Security has 6 years left. The fix that sounds cruelest may be the smartest

A new Penn Wharton study finds that slashing benefits—not raising taxes—produces the biggest economic gains. Here’s the counterintuitive math.

Fortune

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'We're living on borrowed time': As national debt hits $39 trillion, a top diplomat warns of a crisis America isn't ready for

"It's one of those things that's almost like the old law," Richard Haass told Fortune. "It's fine until the day it's not."

Fortune

The national debt just crossed $39 trillion—almost doubling since Trump vowed to erase it

Budget experts agree on one thing. The debt is on an "unsustainable" trajectory.

Fortune

The Federal Spending Spree Will Make the Next Economic Shock Even Worse

Growing federal debt hobbles the government’s ability to respond to crises.

Reason

The national debt isn't $39 trillion. One economist says it's actually $100 trillion

"It's not a Ponzi scheme," Penn Wharton's Kent Smetters explained to Fortune. "It's a shell game."

Fortune

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Trump's Iran war could hike national debt by $65 billion in 60 days, while tariffs add another crushing blow

The Pentagon told lawmakers that they estimated the cost of the war exceeded $11.3 billion in the first 6 days of the conflict—and that didn't even include all of the pre-strike costs.

Fortune

Trump’s strikes on Iran could cost the American economy up to $210B, report says

The president has said the U.S. could give military escorts to oil tankers in the region to ease the strain on global energy supplies

The Independent UK

Trump’s strikes on Iran could cost American economy as much as $210 billion, top budget expert says

“One problem I have with cost-of-war calculations is that they really do ignore the counterfactual,” Kent Smetters of the Penn Wharton Budget Model told Fortune.

Fortune

People are getting fake news on their phones and that’s increasing the risk of a market crash

The great smartphone panic of 2026 builds off the “dumb money” revolution of the past five years. Now viral doomerism is threatening the real economy.

Fortune

Trump’s tariffs are a ‘dirty tax’ that will make the $38.6 trillion national debt crisis even worse over the long term, top analyst says

“The idea that this is pro-American is actually just the opposite,” Wharton’s Kent Smetters told Fortune. “It hurts American manufacturers.”

Fortune

California billionaires’ revolt over a wealth tax is ‘nonsense,’ architect says: A 1% annual tax won’t doom anyone’s business

UC Berkeley professor Brian Galle told Fortune he’s an “enthusiastic capitalist” and his tax ideas have nothing to do with harming the U.S. economy.

Fortune

Making billionaires illegal by taxing their wealth wouldn’t even fund the government for a year, budget expert says

"What people don't realize," Penn Wharton Budget Model director Kent Smetters told Fortune, is there's "just not as much money there as people think."

Fortune

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Fortune

'Military adventures cost money': Economists' key concern about Trump's Venezuela action is how it weakens $38 trillion national debt picture

“What my concern about Venezuela is that…it’s just confirming that the United States isn’t a very reliable partner.”

Benzinga

The $38 Trillion U.S. Debt Mountain – Every American Owes $110,649 Now

American debt hit a record high of $38 trillion earlier this week. Here's a look at how quickly the debt is growing and how much every American would owe today.

The Independent UK

US hits $38 trillion in debt, after the fastest accumulation of $1 trillion outside of the pandemic

The U.S. government's gross national debt has surpassed $38 trillion during the federal shutdown, marking a record high

Fortune

The Fed doesn't actually have a 'dual' mandate—there's a third part it rarely mentions, and economists want it to stay that way

Some experts told Fortune that they had forgotten entirely about the long-term interest rate rule.

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Benzinga

Peter Schiff Says Trump's Tax Cuts 'Won't Grow The Economy.' Instead, He Warns They'll Lead To Higher Interest Rates And Inflation

Economist and market commentator Peter Schiff is cautioning against President Donald Trump's latest tax and spending package, saying it could do more harm than good for the U.S. economy.

Roll Call

Checking the math on White House, GOP claims about ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ - Roll Call

Republicans say the 'big beautiful bill' will reduce the deficit, but economists say making the tax cuts permanent will do the opposite.

Fortune

Trump is going to get 'punched in the face' by markets if he pushes through spending bill without a plan for national debt and tariffs, says Wharton professor

Republicans argue that growth is the best way to rebalance America’s books, but economists fear that tax cuts may be the final nail in the coffin for national debt.

Fortune

How Republicans plan to use 'weird accounting' to pass $5 trillion tax cuts

Not every Republican politician is on board.

Salon

Experts: Musk & Ramaswamy's DOGE doomed

"They have a fundamentally superficial understanding of what they're doing," budget expert warns

Al Jazeera

For Harris and Trump, runaway US debt is the elephant in the room

Both presidential candidates have unveiled costly proposals that would greatly add to the ballooning national debt.

Fortune

Trump vs. Harris: Who would be better for America’s $35 trillion national debt?

“We think of the United States as too big to fail. It’s not actually true.”

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