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The Latest Breaking News from John Curtice

‘Odds against’ John Swinney’s SNP winning Holyrood majority, says polling expert

Professor Sir John Curtice gave his latest view on the eve of Thursday’s Scottish Parliament election.

Evening Standard · May 6

Local election protest votes are no time for defenestrating prime ministers

THE INDEPENDENT VIEW: Editorial: However disastrous the outcome of the local elections, Labour’s leadership crisis will not be solved by hopping from replacement to replacement – as the Conservatives previously found out to their cost

The Independent UK · May 4

Starmer will be forced out of No 10 – it’s just a matter of when and how, top pollster warns

Exclusive: John Curtice says the likelihood of Keir Starmer leading Labour into the next election ‘is very low indeed’

The Independent UK · May 4

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Scottish Tory leader Russell Findlay says he will not lose his seat at election

Mr Findlay said he did not agree with analysis from Sir John Curtice that he could lose his seat if his candidate for the Eastwood constituency wins.

Evening Standard · May 3

SNP bound to win ‘vast bulk’ of constituencies if polls are accurate – Curtice

The polling expert however said the three current largest parties in Scotland are ‘all doing badly’ compared to the last election.

Evening Standard · Apr 30

Local elections 2026: Starmer 'may be saved' from worst nightmare by Labour surviving Green surge in London

Professor Sir John Curtice cast doubt on whether Zack Polanski’s Green Party will make a ‘big breakthrough’ in the capital in the May 7 local elections

Evening Standard · Apr 29

Local elections mapped: Where Labour is facing a ‘calamity’ and the key seats to watch

The governing party could see its worst-ever results on 7 May, experts have warned

The Independent UK · Apr 27

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Unpopular Starmer a negative on the doorstep, Labour mayors warn as they fear local elections wipeout

Exclusive: Labour mayors say repeated U-turns, failure to communicate successes, and the Peter Mandelson scandal are pushing voters away

The Independent UK · Apr 25

‘Unprecedented territory’: are UK polls as volatile as they seem? – in charts

In what is beginning to look like a fragmented five-party system, small swings carry outsized political consequences

The Guardian - UK · Mar 23

Why Nigel Farage is angry at pollsters as Reform’s support falls

IN FULL

The Independent UK · Mar 17

Polling guru says ‘no doubt’ Reform’s support is falling as Nigel Farage renews attack on YouGov

Sir John Curtice and other polling analysts have noted the average for Nigel Farage’s party across polls has dropped in the past month

The Independent UK · Mar 17

Five key takeaways from the Gorton and Denton byelection

The night saw a big win for the Greens, disappointment for Reform and landmark losses for Labour and the Tories

The Guardian - UK · Feb 27

London local elections leave Labour 'nowhere to hide' with Greens on march in the capital, new analysis

But the city is such a Labour stronghold that it may cling onto many wards, says Professor Sir John Curtice

Evening Standard · Feb 17

Tories could be hit harder by local election U-turn than Labour, top pollster says

John Curtice says the Conservative Party is facing challenges in large county councils now being forced to organise May elections

The Independent UK · Feb 17

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The Guardian - UK · Jan 29

The Polanski effect? These charts reveal how much the Greens have advanced

The Green party has made gains under its leader – but there is also uncertainty ahead

The Independent UK · Jan 25

‘We want a real political fight over this’: Why Starmer wants to make Brexit the key issue at the next election

Exclusive: After tacking to the right on migration, it is on EU relations that the government believes it can strike a clear dividing line with opposition parties ahead of the next general election

The Independent UK · Jan 23

Starmer allies ‘plan to block Andy Burnham’s route back to Westminster’

Starmer allies on Labour’s national executive committee reportedly trying to stop potential leadership rival from standing at by-election

The Guardian - UK · Jan 19

Robert Jenrick boasts that Reform is for the workers, but it’s a class war trap – and Labour shouldn’t fall for it

Though Labour's voters are more likely to be the educated middle-classes, its focus must be fighting inequality. We know Farage’s party will only enrich the wealthy, says Guardian columnist Polly Toynbee

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The Independent UK · Jan 4

Andy Burnham is Labour’s best hope of keeping Farage out of No 10, according to UK’s top pollster

With rumours swirling about a coup against Starmer, Britain’s leading polling guru told The Independent that he would not be surprised if one of the main party leaders is replaced in 2026

The Independent UK · Dec 12, 2025

Farage claims Reform is now UK’s biggest party as Labour membership plummets

According to an internal leak Labour has lost 100,000 paid up members since the election leaving Reform UK as the UK’s biggest party

Evening Standard · Dec 3, 2025

Liz Truss mini-Budget torpedoed Brexit economic hopes, says expert as Labour seeks closer EU ties

The UK economy has suffered a multi-billion pound blow from quitting the European Union, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility

The Independent UK · Nov 1, 2025

Starmer to face cabinet backlash if he breaks manifesto pledge on income tax

Senior ministers fear rumoured plans could backfire significantly with already-weary voters

The Independent UK · Oct 24, 2025

‘Disappointed’ Starmer in firing line over historic by-election defeat for Labour in Caerphilly

‘We clearly need to do much more’ admits prime minister

The Independent UK · Oct 24, 2025

What does Plaid Cymru stand for?

Plaid Cymru’s leader Rhun ap Iorwerth has hailed the by-election result as ‘real evidence’ that people are putting their ‘faith’ in the party

Evening Standard · Oct 24, 2025

Plaid Cymru’s Caerphilly by-election win leaves Labour with ‘very tough fight’

Cabinet Office minister Nick Thomas-Symonds said the result pointed to a ‘fractured political landscape’.

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